← BackAdam Wainwright
STL · RHP · 2023
89.3 IP · 464 BF · 1,705 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
89
Stuff+
6th percentile
93
ABStuff+
3th percentile
94
Pitching+
11th percentile
11.9%
K%
5th percentile
8.4%
BB%
53th percentile
6.58
FIP
17th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 89.3 IP · 464 BF · 1,705 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+89
6th percentile
ABStuff+93
3th percentile
Whiff%11.9%
5th percentile
CSW%32.9%
39th percentile
Results
Pitching+94
11th percentile
RV/100-1.99
11th percentile
FIP6.58
17th percentile
RA/94.63
53th percentile
GB%41.8%
47th percentile
Command
K%11.9%
5th percentile
BB%8.4%
53th percentile
K-BB%3.4%
11th percentile
Velo80.8
5th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 89.3 IP · 464 BF · 1,705 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%7.5%
5th percentile
O-Whf%23.4%
5th percentile
Chase%22.2%
11th percentile
Z-Con%92.5%
7th percentile
O-Con%76.6%
6th percentile
SwStr%24.9%
23th percentile
PutAwy%13.6%
18th percentile
Approach
Zone%48.2%
45th percentile
Z-Swg%61.6%
14th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%41.2%
5th percentile
CS%26.4%
95th percentile
F-Str%44.2%
18th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI+2.4/+1.8CB-4.4/+6.5CT-0.3/+3.4FF-0.9/+6.3CH+3.6/+0.2ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.22 ft (±0.17)
Side: -1.23 ft (±0.46)
Extension: 6.46 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
CB
119
37.0
34.5
24.4
0.0
81.0
7.9
30.3
SI
115
45.2
27.0
27.0
0.0
85.7
17.6
48.7
CT
83
48.2
21.7
22.9
0.0
79.5
18.6
33.7
FF
33
27.3
33.3
33.3
0.0
88.3
20.3
54.5
CH
18
50.0
27.8
22.2
0.0
85.2
7.8
22.2
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
70th pct
Effective mix
4.3
83rd pct
Separation
22.6
77th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
78th pct
Velo range
15.4 mph
83rd pct
SI · CB · CT · FF · CH
2023 season, 1,705 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.04
44th percentile
Where he throws
+0.00
54th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.04
39th percentile
Heart31.4%
+132.31/100
Shadow38.7%
+150.11/100
Chase22.6%
−277.79/100
Waste7.4%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · SI6.8%−0.28
shadow · SI13.3%+0.21
heart · SI9.9%+0.19
chase · CT5.0%−0.16
shadow · CT8.8%+0.14
17 other locations−0.13
Total−0.04
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.