← BackDaniel Bard
COL · RHP · 2023
43.7 IP · 230 BF · 919 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
98
Stuff+
37th percentile
100
ABStuff+
45th percentile
88
Pitching+
3th percentile
20.0%
K%
40th percentile
19.6%
BB%
4th percentile
6.36
FIP
20th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 43.7 IP · 230 BF · 919 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+98
37th percentile
ABStuff+100
45th percentile
Whiff%18.9%
22th percentile
CSW%31.0%
21th percentile
Results
Pitching+88
3th percentile
RV/100-0.42
40th percentile
FIP6.36
20th percentile
RA/93.30
77th percentile
GB%37.0%
25th percentile
Command
K%20.0%
40th percentile
BB%19.6%
4th percentile
K-BB%0.4%
5th percentile
Velo90.9
75th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 43.7 IP · 230 BF · 919 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%14.7%
45th percentile
O-Whf%33.3%
23th percentile
Chase%17.8%
5th percentile
Z-Con%85.3%
45th percentile
O-Con%66.7%
23th percentile
SwStr%26.4%
38th percentile
PutAwy%16.2%
38th percentile
Approach
Zone%48.9%
51th percentile
Z-Swg%63.6%
24th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%40.2%
5th percentile
CS%22.1%
71th percentile
F-Str%44.1%
17th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SL+6.2/-3.2SI+2.4/+4.1FF-5.2/+6.2SL+6.2/-3.2ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.90 ft (±0.28)
Side: -1.62 ft (±0.23)
Extension: 6.02 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SL
61
27.9
32.8
29.5
0.0
79.9
24.3
31.1
SI
55
52.7
23.6
14.5
0.0
81.3
19.0
29.1
FF
6
16.7
50.0
16.7
0.0
81.8
17.4
33.3
SL
5
0.0
60.0
20.0
0.0
77.1
27.7
40.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
9th pct
Effective mix
2.5
21st pct
Separation
14.6
6th pct
Shape scatter
3.8 in
96th pct
Velo range
8.0 mph
7th pct
SL · SI · FF
2023 season, 919 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.18
20th percentile
Where he throws
−0.10
30th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.07
29th percentile
Heart32.8%
+132.31/100
Shadow36.5%
+150.11/100
Chase20.0%
−277.79/100
Waste10.8%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
waste · SI4.5%−0.34
shadow · SL17.4%+0.34
chase · SI8.1%−0.33
heart · SI13.7%+0.26
shadow · SI15.6%+0.25
9 other locations−0.35
Total−0.18
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.