Carlos Carrasco

NYM · RHP · 2023

83.7 IP · 419 BF · 1,578 pitches · 2023 season

HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast

101

Stuff+

100

ABStuff+

Pitching+

15.5%

9.1%

BB%

6.33

FIP

Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.

Percentile rankings

vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 83.7 IP · 419 BF · 1,578 pitches · 2023 season

Stuff

Stuff+

101

ABStuff+

100

Whiff%

23.4%

CSW%

33.0%

Results

Pitching+

RV/100

-1.40

FIP

6.33

RA/9

5.49

GB%

45.9%

Command

15.5%

BB%

9.1%

K-BB%

6.4%

Velo

88.2

How to read these

Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.

Percentile rankings

Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 83.7 IP · 419 BF · 1,578 pitches · 2023 season

Swing & miss

Z-Whf%

12.5%

O-Whf%

45.7%

Chase%

28.1%

Z-Con%

87.5%

O-Con%

54.3%

SwStr%

26.0%

PutAwy%

14.0%

Approach

Zone%

45.2%

Z-Swg%

69.5%

Swing%

46.8%

CS%

19.1%

F-Str%

45.5%

How to read these

Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.

ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab

Pitch

Usage

Velo

IVB

Spin

Whiff%

CSW%

Zone%

Chase%

Stuff+

ABStuff+

31.9%

92.7

12.1

-5.5

2217

13.2%

29.1%

50.7%

15.7%

100

29.9%

87.2

0.8

-8.2

1366

31.2%

29.9%

34.7%

37.7%

110

100

18.2%

84.1

0.8

3.7

2478

31.5%

39.5%

48.8%

32.0%

100

10.5%

91.5

5.6

-15.1

2072

12.0%

28.7%

45.2%

24.2%

100

8.8%

80.0

-6.0

9.2

2703

20.7%

48.2%

54.7%

28.6%

100

0.4%

89.5

7.6

0.6

2446

0.0%

40.0%

50.0%

0.0%

100

0.3%

82.9

0.7

13.5

2536

0.0%

50.0%

20.0%

25.0%

100

Movement Profile

FF-2.7/+4.3CH-2.7/+6.3SL+4.8/-2.3SI-3.5/+2.1CBCT+1.8/-1.7SWring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive

Release Traits

Height: 5.79 ft (±0.11)

Side: -1.44 ft (±0.18)

Extension: 6.54 ft

Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.

Batted Ball Against

Pitch

N_BIP

GB%

FB%

LD%

PU%

Avg EV

Avg LA

HrdHit%

45.1

26.4

22.0

0.0

86.2

19.8

49.5

55.2

14.9

28.7

0.0

84.3

1.4

44.8

43.9

21.1

26.3

0.0

83.8

5.2

43.9

37.2

14.0

48.8

0.0

90.6

4.0

65.1

32.0

44.0

16.0

0.0

81.7

9.0

40.0

100.0

0.0

93.5

6.0

0.0

100.0

0.0

67.7

2.5

0.0

Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.

Arsenal

Pitches

70th pct

Effective mix

4.4

89th pct

Separation

16.9

20th pct

Shape scatter

3.5 in

83rd pct

Velo range

12.7 mph

58th pct

FF · CH · SL · SI · CB

2023 season, 1,567 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.

Location value

runs per 100 pitches vs league

2023 · 1,578 located pitches

Total

−0.15

24th percentile

Where he throws

−0.17

19th percentile

Which pitch there

+0.02

58th percentile

Heart24.7%

+132.31/100

Shadow41.5%

+150.11/100

Chase25.2%

−277.79/100

Waste8.6%

−492.99/100

What makes up the total

shadow · CH12.9%+0.30

chase · FB5.9%−0.30

heart · FB9.8%+0.18

waste · FB2.7%−0.17

waste · CH3.4%−0.16

18 other locations−0.01

Total−0.15

Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.