← BackCarlos Carrasco
NYY · RHP · 2025
43.7 IP · 212 BF · 776 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
99
Stuff+
32th percentile
99
ABStuff+
30th percentile
100
Pitching+
30th percentile
16.0%
K%
18th percentile
8.0%
BB%
57th percentile
6.29
FIP
20th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 43.7 IP · 212 BF · 776 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+99
32th percentile
ABStuff+99
30th percentile
Whiff%21.7%
43th percentile
CSW%32.6%
38th percentile
Results
Pitching+100
30th percentile
RV/100-1.80
16th percentile
FIP6.29
20th percentile
RA/96.18
20th percentile
GB%36.0%
28th percentile
Command
K%16.0%
18th percentile
BB%8.0%
57th percentile
K-BB%8.0%
24th percentile
Velo86.6
15th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 43.7 IP · 212 BF · 776 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%10.7%
17th percentile
O-Whf%49.0%
75th percentile
Chase%24.9%
26th percentile
Z-Con%89.3%
17th percentile
O-Con%51.0%
75th percentile
SwStr%24.9%
24th percentile
PutAwy%17.0%
48th percentile
Approach
Zone%47.3%
22th percentile
Z-Swg%68.8%
66th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%45.6%
32th percentile
CS%19.6%
46th percentile
F-Str%48.3%
37th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SL+4.8/-2.3SI-3.5/+2.1CH-2.7/+6.3FF-2.7/+4.3CBring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.88 ft (±0.11)
Side: -1.29 ft (±0.16)
Extension: 6.72 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
50
44.0
30.0
22.0
0.0
89.5
7.3
52.0
FF
38
28.9
39.5
21.1
0.0
84.2
28.0
39.5
CH
33
42.4
24.2
30.3
0.0
79.2
4.5
24.2
SL
33
30.3
21.2
42.4
0.0
84.5
18.7
57.6
CB
7
14.3
42.9
42.9
0.0
84.3
12.6
14.3
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
60th pct
Effective mix
4.8
88th pct
Separation
15.8
10th pct
Shape scatter
3.7 in
94th pct
Velo range
13.7 mph
71st pct
SL · SI · CH · FF · CB
2025 season, 776 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.03
45th percentile
Where he throws
−0.18
16th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.15
93th percentile
Heart26.4%
+148.26/100
Shadow41.4%
+125.76/100
Chase23.0%
−278.14/100
Waste9.3%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
heart · SI8.5%+0.18
chase · FB3.5%−0.17
shadow · CH8.1%+0.17
shadow · SL10.9%+0.17
heart · FB7.6%+0.15
15 other locations−0.53
Total−0.03
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.