← BackMerrill Kelly
AZ · RHP · 2026
150.0 IP · 708 BF · 2,616 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
92
Stuff+
7th percentile
96
ABStuff+
8th percentile
103
Pitching+
45th percentile
16.0%
K%
21th percentile
9.6%
BB%
45th percentile
5.98
FIP
25th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 150.0 IP · 708 BF · 2,616 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+92
7th percentile
ABStuff+96
8th percentile
Whiff%19.5%
31th percentile
CSW%29.7%
15th percentile
Results
Pitching+103
45th percentile
RV/100-0.65
36th percentile
FIP5.98
25th percentile
RA/93.84
63th percentile
GB%41.5%
50th percentile
Command
K%16.0%
21th percentile
BB%9.6%
45th percentile
K-BB%6.4%
23th percentile
Velo89.3
43th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 150.0 IP · 708 BF · 2,616 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%10.3%
22th percentile
O-Whf%33.0%
23th percentile
Chase%35.2%
90th percentile
Z-Con%89.7%
22th percentile
O-Con%67.0%
23th percentile
SwStr%23.5%
15th percentile
PutAwy%14.7%
29th percentile
Approach
Zone%43.0%
12th percentile
Z-Swg%68.4%
64th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%49.5%
73th percentile
CS%17.5%
20th percentile
F-Str%48.5%
40th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
CH-1.7/+0.4FF+1.0/+1.2CT+4.5/-4.7CB-2.4/-5.7SL+2.1/-3.1SI+1.0/-0.4ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.41 ft (±0.11)
Side: -1.85 ft (±0.10)
Extension: 6.12 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
CH
151
53.0
14.6
30.5
0.0
80.4
-2.5
35.1
FF
123
22.8
43.1
25.2
0.0
84.8
34.8
48.0
CT
78
21.8
44.9
26.9
0.0
85.5
29.3
50.0
SI
62
51.6
17.7
29.0
0.0
84.8
6.3
41.9
SL
60
48.3
16.7
23.3
0.0
82.6
11.3
30.0
CB
42
66.7
16.7
16.7
0.0
82.6
-0.1
45.2
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
6
83rd pct
Effective mix
5.4
93rd pct
Separation
17.3
23rd pct
Shape scatter
2.6 in
6th pct
Velo range
9.8 mph
21st pct
CH · FF · CT · CB · SL · SI
2026 season, 2,616 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CB
299
242
+0.86
-0.34
CH
724
421
-0.27
-0.07
CT
362
279
-1.49
-0.07
FF
717
439
-1.00
-0.01
SI
247
196
-1.45
+0.27
SL
267
176
-0.60
+0.04
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.01
51th percentile
Where he throws
−0.10
30th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.09
80th percentile
Heart24.5%
+174.27/100
Shadow43.6%
+115.87/100
Chase25.8%
−286.13/100
Waste6.0%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB5.0%−0.27
shadow · CH12.4%+0.25
heart · FB9.9%+0.21
chase · CH10.1%−0.14
waste · CH2.6%−0.11
19 other locations+0.06
Total−0.01
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.