← BackJoe Kelly
CWS · RHP · 2023
37.3 IP · 168 BF · 707 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
117
Stuff+
98th percentile
109
ABStuff+
98th percentile
108
Pitching+
91th percentile
35.7%
K%
96th percentile
10.1%
BB%
34th percentile
3.08
FIP
95th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 37.3 IP · 168 BF · 707 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+117
98th percentile
ABStuff+109
98th percentile
Whiff%28.0%
79th percentile
CSW%40.1%
92th percentile
Results
Pitching+108
91th percentile
RV/100+0.50
72th percentile
FIP3.08
95th percentile
RA/96.51
20th percentile
GB%58.6%
92th percentile
Command
K%35.7%
96th percentile
BB%10.1%
34th percentile
K-BB%25.6%
93th percentile
Velo94.4
95th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 37.3 IP · 168 BF · 707 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%14.6%
44th percentile
O-Whf%51.3%
84th percentile
Chase%31.9%
80th percentile
Z-Con%85.4%
44th percentile
O-Con%48.7%
84th percentile
SwStr%33.9%
96th percentile
PutAwy%22.8%
85th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.9%
61th percentile
Z-Swg%56.1%
5th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.0%
21th percentile
CS%25.5%
92th percentile
F-Str%56.0%
85th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI+1.0/-0.5SL-2.6/+4.9CB-3.2/-2.9FF-0.3/-0.5CH+2.2/-2.6ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.38 ft (±0.21)
Side: -1.80 ft (±0.14)
Extension: 6.15 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
25
60.0
0.0
40.0
0.0
80.2
3.5
36.0
SL
19
47.4
36.8
15.8
0.0
81.2
11.3
26.3
CH
17
70.6
17.6
11.8
0.0
82.2
-2.8
35.3
FF
17
35.3
29.4
35.3
0.0
83.1
25.5
41.2
CB
9
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
82.3
-10.1
55.6
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
70th pct
Effective mix
4.7
93rd pct
Separation
20.1
49th pct
Shape scatter
3.5 in
83rd pct
Velo range
9.8 mph
23rd pct
SI · SL · CB · FF · CH
2023 season, 707 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.03
60th percentile
Where he throws
−0.10
29th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.14
88th percentile
Heart32.5%
+132.31/100
Shadow35.9%
+150.11/100
Chase22.4%
−277.79/100
Waste9.2%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · SI5.8%−0.23
shadow · SI13.4%+0.21
heart · SI11.0%+0.21
waste · SL4.2%−0.17
shadow · SL7.5%+0.15
15 other locations−0.13
Total+0.03
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.