← BackMichael Lorenzen
COL · RHP · 2026
119.3 IP · 619 BF · 2,399 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
96
Stuff+
17th percentile
98
ABStuff+
22th percentile
100
Pitching+
25th percentile
14.5%
K%
15th percentile
8.7%
BB%
55th percentile
6.06
FIP
24th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 119.3 IP · 619 BF · 2,399 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+96
17th percentile
ABStuff+98
22th percentile
Whiff%17.1%
18th percentile
CSW%31.5%
29th percentile
Results
Pitching+100
25th percentile
RV/100-1.98
14th percentile
FIP6.06
24th percentile
RA/94.15
56th percentile
GB%43.7%
59th percentile
Command
K%14.5%
15th percentile
BB%8.7%
55th percentile
K-BB%5.8%
21th percentile
Velo88.8
37th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 119.3 IP · 619 BF · 2,399 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%9.8%
19th percentile
O-Whf%35.9%
35th percentile
Chase%24.1%
14th percentile
Z-Con%90.2%
19th percentile
O-Con%64.1%
35th percentile
SwStr%24.7%
24th percentile
PutAwy%13.0%
19th percentile
Approach
Zone%48.4%
62th percentile
Z-Swg%66.2%
46th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.5%
24th percentile
CS%21.8%
72th percentile
F-Str%50.0%
50th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
CH+3.2/-0.2SI-0.8/-0.3FF-1.9/-2.1CT-1.2/-2.7CB-0.3/-9.6SW-0.4/-4.6SL-0.8/-2.5ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.70 ft (±0.16)
Side: -1.84 ft (±0.48)
Extension: 5.84 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
119
57.1
12.6
26.9
0.0
86.3
8.1
47.9
FF
85
31.8
37.6
29.4
0.0
87.4
26.5
57.6
CH
82
34.1
24.4
26.8
0.0
80.3
15.2
29.3
CT
71
50.7
23.9
23.9
0.0
84.7
13.0
43.7
SL
43
37.2
27.9
27.9
0.0
84.3
14.9
53.5
CB
42
54.8
19.0
26.2
0.0
83.5
-0.2
47.6
SW
27
25.9
44.4
22.2
0.0
80.5
16.9
48.1
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
7
97th pct
Effective mix
6.5
100th pct
Separation
16.9
18th pct
Shape scatter
3.6 in
90th pct
Velo range
11.3 mph
39th pct
CH · SI · FF · CT · CB · SW · SL
2026 season, 2,399 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CB
253
201
-2.17
-0.34
CH
489
300
-1.85
-0.07
CT
345
260
-0.88
-0.07
FF
454
299
-2.88
-0.01
SI
486
306
-2.41
+0.27
SL
180
144
-1.02
+0.04
SW
192
140
-1.73
-0.01
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.09
72th percentile
Where he throws
+0.03
58th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.06
72th percentile
Heart31.2%
+174.27/100
Shadow40.4%
+115.87/100
Chase20.5%
−286.13/100
Waste8.0%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
heart · SI7.7%+0.19
chase · SI3.5%−0.17
chase · FB2.9%−0.16
heart · FB7.3%+0.16
shadow · CH7.5%+0.15
19 other locations−0.08
Total+0.09
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.