← BackAroldis Chapman
BOS · LHP · 2026
49.3 IP · 213 BF · 841 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
114
Stuff+
95th percentile
107
ABStuff+
95th percentile
108
Pitching+
83th percentile
33.3%
K%
94th percentile
10.8%
BB%
34th percentile
3.01
FIP
95th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 49.3 IP · 213 BF · 841 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+114
95th percentile
ABStuff+107
95th percentile
Whiff%26.8%
78th percentile
CSW%34.1%
61th percentile
Results
Pitching+108
83th percentile
FIP3.01
95th percentile
RA/94.74
43th percentile
GB%48.3%
78th percentile
Command
K%33.3%
94th percentile
BB%10.8%
34th percentile
K-BB%22.5%
92th percentile
Velo94.4
95th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+0.7/+3.5SI+4.8/+2.6SL+3.6/+6.3FS-2.1/+3.0ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.17 ft (±0.11)
Side: 0.39 ft (±0.18)
Extension: 7.17 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
51
39.2
27.5
25.5
0.0
81.4
26.8
43.1
SI
36
52.8
33.3
11.1
0.0
83.2
26.7
44.4
FS
17
58.8
23.5
5.9
0.0
80.0
4.9
29.4
SL
14
57.1
21.4
14.3
0.0
75.2
14.6
14.3
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.