← BackAroldis Chapman
KC · LHP · 2023
57.3 IP · 248 BF · 1,002 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
116
Stuff+
98th percentile
109
ABStuff+
97th percentile
104
Pitching+
71th percentile
41.5%
K%
99th percentile
13.7%
BB%
14th percentile
2.98
FIP
95th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 57.3 IP · 248 BF · 1,002 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+116
98th percentile
ABStuff+109
97th percentile
Whiff%39.2%
99th percentile
CSW%42.3%
95th percentile
Results
Pitching+104
71th percentile
RV/100+1.12
88th percentile
FIP2.98
95th percentile
RA/96.44
21th percentile
GB%47.7%
69th percentile
Command
K%41.5%
99th percentile
BB%13.7%
14th percentile
K-BB%27.8%
96th percentile
Velo95.6
99th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 57.3 IP · 248 BF · 1,002 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%32.6%
99th percentile
O-Whf%58.3%
94th percentile
Chase%23.9%
19th percentile
Z-Con%67.4%
95th percentile
O-Con%41.7%
95th percentile
SwStr%36.7%
99th percentile
PutAwy%32.7%
99th percentile
Approach
Zone%51.9%
80th percentile
Z-Swg%64.8%
31th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%45.1%
28th percentile
CS%21.9%
69th percentile
F-Str%49.0%
41th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+0.7/+3.5SL+3.6/+6.3SI+4.8/+2.6FS-2.1/+3.0ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.08 ft (±0.12)
Side: 0.55 ft (±0.18)
Extension: 7.16 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
44
43.2
20.5
29.5
0.0
81.5
26.1
27.3
SL
33
45.5
18.2
21.2
0.0
79.3
14.0
27.3
SI
19
52.6
15.8
31.6
0.0
85.1
22.6
63.2
FS
13
61.5
15.4
7.7
0.0
86.5
11.7
23.1
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
35th pct
Effective mix
3.3
49th pct
Separation
17.5
26th pct
Shape scatter
3.3 in
68th pct
Velo range
13.0 mph
63rd pct
FF · SL · SI · FS
2023 season, 1,002 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.07
37th percentile
Where he throws
+0.14
81th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.21
6th percentile
Heart33.4%
+132.31/100
Shadow39.7%
+150.11/100
Chase19.7%
−277.79/100
Waste7.2%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB9.8%−0.50
heart · FB15.9%+0.28
waste · FB4.0%−0.25
shadow · SL11.7%+0.23
shadow · FB17.9%+0.15
11 other locations+0.02
Total−0.07
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.