← BackAroldis Chapman
PIT · LHP · 2024
58.0 IP · 266 BF · 1,127 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
119
Stuff+
99th percentile
111
ABStuff+
99th percentile
103
Pitching+
63th percentile
36.8%
K%
97th percentile
14.3%
BB%
8th percentile
3.48
FIP
85th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 58.0 IP · 266 BF · 1,127 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+119
99th percentile
ABStuff+111
99th percentile
Whiff%29.7%
89th percentile
CSW%36.9%
81th percentile
Results
Pitching+103
63th percentile
RV/100-0.18
48th percentile
FIP3.48
85th percentile
RA/93.72
62th percentile
GB%44.4%
61th percentile
Command
K%36.8%
97th percentile
BB%14.3%
8th percentile
K-BB%22.6%
91th percentile
Velo94.7
96th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 58.0 IP · 266 BF · 1,127 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%21.1%
90th percentile
O-Whf%50.3%
80th percentile
Chase%26.5%
36th percentile
Z-Con%78.9%
95th percentile
O-Con%49.7%
80th percentile
SwStr%31.9%
91th percentile
PutAwy%24.5%
91th percentile
Approach
Zone%50.8%
64th percentile
Z-Swg%62.1%
12th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.5%
19th percentile
CS%21.6%
68th percentile
F-Str%48.9%
38th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+0.7/+3.5SI+4.8/+2.6SL+3.6/+6.3FS-2.1/+3.0ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.10 ft (±0.12)
Side: 0.43 ft (±0.18)
Extension: 7.39 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
41
34.1
29.3
29.3
0.0
85.6
25.2
53.7
SI
39
46.2
35.9
15.4
0.0
84.7
20.7
43.6
SL
32
40.6
34.4
15.6
0.0
81.4
17.9
28.1
FS
14
78.6
7.1
14.3
0.0
74.8
-3.7
28.6
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
30th pct
Effective mix
3.8
66th pct
Separation
16.4
15th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
81st pct
Velo range
12.8 mph
60th pct
FF · SI · SL · FS
2024 season, 1,127 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.08
33th percentile
Where he throws
+0.02
58th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.10
13th percentile
Heart32.0%
+131.67/100
Shadow38.8%
+152.37/100
Chase21.2%
−280.53/100
Waste8.0%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB6.3%−0.31
chase · SI5.8%−0.25
heart · FB12.8%+0.25
shadow · SL11.6%+0.22
shadow · SI10.7%+0.15
11 other locations−0.14
Total−0.08
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.