← BackPatrick Corbin
WSH · LHP · 2023
162.7 IP · 792 BF · 2,886 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
93
Stuff+
16th percentile
98
ABStuff+
29th percentile
97
Pitching+
26th percentile
15.4%
K%
16th percentile
7.1%
BB%
70th percentile
6.05
FIP
24th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 162.7 IP · 792 BF · 2,886 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+93
16th percentile
ABStuff+98
29th percentile
Whiff%20.2%
29th percentile
CSW%33.1%
41th percentile
Results
Pitching+97
26th percentile
RV/100-0.82
28th percentile
FIP6.05
24th percentile
RA/94.81
49th percentile
GB%45.2%
60th percentile
Command
K%15.4%
16th percentile
BB%7.1%
70th percentile
K-BB%8.3%
26th percentile
Velo87.3
25th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 162.7 IP · 792 BF · 2,886 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%10.4%
14th percentile
O-Whf%42.4%
56th percentile
Chase%27.0%
40th percentile
Z-Con%89.6%
14th percentile
O-Con%57.6%
56th percentile
SwStr%25.0%
23th percentile
PutAwy%15.7%
33th percentile
Approach
Zone%48.4%
47th percentile
Z-Swg%65.4%
36th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%45.6%
34th percentile
CS%20.9%
56th percentile
F-Str%50.7%
53th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI+2.4/+0.5SL-2.6/-1.0FF-0.7/+0.8CH+3.2/+3.5ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.31 ft (±0.12)
Side: 2.26 ft (±0.15)
Extension: 6.83 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
309
54.7
17.8
24.3
0.0
85.4
14.0
45.6
SL
153
37.3
29.4
24.8
0.0
83.5
11.0
38.6
FF
110
31.8
40.0
23.6
0.0
85.5
27.0
50.0
CH
23
34.8
34.8
21.7
0.0
71.4
7.1
30.4
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
35th pct
Effective mix
3.4
51st pct
Separation
15.4
10th pct
Shape scatter
2.7 in
11th pct
Velo range
11.7 mph
44th pct
SI · SL · FF · CH
2023 season, 2,886 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.14
81th percentile
Where he throws
−0.02
47th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.16
91th percentile
Heart26.7%
+132.31/100
Shadow42.6%
+150.11/100
Chase23.0%
−277.79/100
Waste7.6%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
shadow · SI19.3%+0.30
chase · SI7.1%−0.28
heart · SI13.5%+0.26
shadow · SL13.1%+0.25
waste · SL5.1%−0.21
11 other locations−0.18
Total+0.14
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.