← BackPatrick Corbin
WSH · LHP · 2024
160.0 IP · 769 BF · 2,885 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
92
Stuff+
12th percentile
97
ABStuff+
22th percentile
97
Pitching+
19th percentile
18.1%
K%
29th percentile
6.9%
BB%
65th percentile
5.06
FIP
39th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 160.0 IP · 769 BF · 2,885 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+92
12th percentile
ABStuff+97
22th percentile
Whiff%21.1%
38th percentile
CSW%33.0%
40th percentile
Results
Pitching+97
19th percentile
RV/100-1.09
23th percentile
FIP5.06
39th percentile
RA/93.21
72th percentile
GB%47.2%
73th percentile
Command
K%18.1%
29th percentile
BB%6.9%
65th percentile
K-BB%11.2%
39th percentile
Velo85.7
5th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 160.0 IP · 769 BF · 2,885 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%11.3%
22th percentile
O-Whf%41.0%
50th percentile
Chase%29.8%
66th percentile
Z-Con%88.7%
22th percentile
O-Con%59.0%
50th percentile
SwStr%25.3%
26th percentile
PutAwy%16.0%
38th percentile
Approach
Zone%46.7%
23th percentile
Z-Swg%69.3%
61th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%48.2%
54th percentile
CS%19.7%
45th percentile
F-Str%51.2%
54th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI+2.4/+0.5SL-2.6/-1.0CT-1.9/+0.2FF-0.7/+0.8CH+3.2/+3.5CB+6.8/-6.6ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.25 ft (±0.13)
Side: 2.45 ft (±0.18)
Extension: 6.73 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
264
54.9
17.0
25.4
0.0
86.9
12.7
55.3
SL
142
38.7
23.2
30.3
0.0
79.7
10.3
32.4
CT
111
41.4
24.3
29.7
0.0
84.3
13.5
49.5
FF
27
44.4
22.2
29.6
0.0
85.9
19.9
40.7
CH
18
33.3
22.2
38.9
0.0
83.5
12.9
33.3
CB
5
60.0
40.0
0.0
0.0
77.1
12.0
20.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
67th pct
Effective mix
3.8
66th pct
Separation
14.8
7th pct
Shape scatter
2.8 in
21st pct
Velo range
11.5 mph
43rd pct
SI · SL · CT · FF · CH
2024 season, 2,835 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.01
48th percentile
Where he throws
−0.08
34th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.07
76th percentile
Heart26.6%
+131.67/100
Shadow41.9%
+152.37/100
Chase23.1%
−280.53/100
Waste8.5%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
chase · SI6.4%−0.28
shadow · SL13.0%+0.24
shadow · SI16.7%+0.23
waste · SL5.2%−0.20
heart · SI11.3%+0.18
18 other locations−0.19
Total−0.01
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.