← BackPierce Johnson
ATL · RHP · 2024
50.3 IP · 235 BF · 916 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
110
Stuff+
92th percentile
109
ABStuff+
98th percentile
106
Pitching+
79th percentile
28.1%
K%
84th percentile
10.2%
BB%
29th percentile
4.13
FIP
67th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 50.3 IP · 235 BF · 916 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+110
92th percentile
ABStuff+109
98th percentile
Whiff%25.9%
72th percentile
CSW%37.5%
84th percentile
Results
Pitching+106
79th percentile
RV/100+0.26
63th percentile
FIP4.13
67th percentile
RA/97.69
8th percentile
GB%45.8%
67th percentile
Command
K%28.1%
84th percentile
BB%10.2%
29th percentile
K-BB%17.9%
75th percentile
Velo88.1
33th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 50.3 IP · 235 BF · 916 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%16.0%
62th percentile
O-Whf%50.0%
79th percentile
Chase%27.5%
45th percentile
Z-Con%84.0%
62th percentile
O-Con%50.0%
79th percentile
SwStr%30.8%
86th percentile
PutAwy%21.8%
83th percentile
Approach
Zone%52.4%
79th percentile
Z-Swg%61.0%
5th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%45.1%
23th percentile
CS%23.3%
84th percentile
F-Str%50.2%
47th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
CB+4.7/-4.1FF+0.2/-1.6CTring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.13 ft (±0.14)
Side: -2.17 ft (±0.19)
Extension: 5.84 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
CB
117
48.7
27.4
19.7
0.0
83.4
14.6
41.0
FF
22
31.8
22.7
36.4
0.0
80.7
35.9
31.8
CT
3
33.3
33.3
33.3
0.0
82.0
-0.7
33.3
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
7th pct
Effective mix
2.0
8th pct
Separation
20.5
55th pct
Shape scatter
3.0 in
45th pct
Velo range
10.1 mph
25th pct
CB · FF · CT
2024 season, 916 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.04
41th percentile
Where he throws
+0.03
60th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.07
20th percentile
Heart31.8%
+131.67/100
Shadow38.9%
+152.37/100
Chase22.1%
−280.53/100
Waste7.3%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
shadow · CB28.4%+0.42
chase · FB4.5%−0.22
chase · CB16.4%−0.20
waste · CB4.8%−0.18
heart · FB8.7%+0.17
7 other locations−0.03
Total−0.04
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.