← BackPierce Johnson
ATL · RHP · 2025
54.3 IP · 240 BF · 968 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
107
Stuff+
77th percentile
107
ABStuff+
95th percentile
102
Pitching+
41th percentile
24.6%
K%
71th percentile
7.1%
BB%
68th percentile
4.39
FIP
60th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 54.3 IP · 240 BF · 968 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+107
77th percentile
ABStuff+107
95th percentile
Whiff%23.4%
54th percentile
CSW%39.0%
92th percentile
Results
Pitching+102
41th percentile
RV/100+0.25
62th percentile
FIP4.39
60th percentile
RA/94.64
46th percentile
GB%34.6%
23th percentile
Command
K%24.6%
71th percentile
BB%7.1%
68th percentile
K-BB%17.5%
76th percentile
Velo88.3
32th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 54.3 IP · 240 BF · 968 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%15.5%
57th percentile
O-Whf%43.7%
57th percentile
Chase%26.3%
38th percentile
Z-Con%84.5%
57th percentile
O-Con%56.3%
57th percentile
SwStr%31.5%
92th percentile
PutAwy%17.9%
56th percentile
Approach
Zone%53.2%
77th percentile
Z-Swg%60.0%
5th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.2%
21th percentile
CS%26.2%
94th percentile
F-Str%56.7%
92th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
CB+4.7/-4.1FF+0.2/-1.6CTring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.20 ft (±0.15)
Side: -1.88 ft (±0.26)
Extension: 5.72 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
CB
128
35.2
32.8
25.0
0.0
83.6
18.6
46.1
FF
24
20.8
29.2
37.5
0.0
80.8
33.8
29.2
CT
7
71.4
14.3
14.3
0.0
81.5
20.6
28.6
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
6th pct
Effective mix
2.1
7th pct
Separation
19.5
45th pct
Shape scatter
3.1 in
57th pct
Velo range
9.4 mph
17th pct
CB · FF · CT
2025 season, 968 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.06
38th percentile
Where he throws
+0.08
72th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.14
8th percentile
Heart34.1%
+148.26/100
Shadow39.0%
+125.76/100
Chase19.1%
−278.14/100
Waste7.8%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
shadow · CB28.2%+0.30
waste · CB6.0%−0.22
chase · FB3.8%−0.19
heart · FB8.3%+0.17
chase · CB13.7%−0.16
7 other locations+0.05
Total−0.06
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.