← BackClay Holmes
NYY · RHP · 2024
59.7 IP · 271 BF · 1,081 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
117
Stuff+
98th percentile
109
ABStuff+
98th percentile
102
Pitching+
54th percentile
25.1%
K%
73th percentile
7.7%
BB%
56th percentile
3.42
FIP
86th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 59.7 IP · 271 BF · 1,081 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+117
98th percentile
ABStuff+109
98th percentile
Whiff%27.5%
80th percentile
CSW%40.3%
94th percentile
Results
Pitching+102
54th percentile
RV/100+0.27
63th percentile
FIP3.42
86th percentile
RA/94.83
39th percentile
GB%64.6%
96th percentile
Command
K%25.1%
73th percentile
BB%7.7%
56th percentile
K-BB%17.3%
72th percentile
Velo91.7
80th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 59.7 IP · 271 BF · 1,081 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%17.1%
71th percentile
O-Whf%50.0%
79th percentile
Chase%28.0%
49th percentile
Z-Con%82.9%
71th percentile
O-Con%50.0%
79th percentile
SwStr%32.3%
92th percentile
PutAwy%18.0%
56th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.3%
48th percentile
Z-Swg%62.4%
13th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.9%
22th percentile
CS%24.9%
92th percentile
F-Str%52.0%
60th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI-6.6/-1.1SLSW-4.3/+3.2ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.58 ft (±0.10)
Side: -0.77 ft (±0.17)
Extension: 5.95 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
120
69.2
9.2
20.8
0.0
84.0
-1.1
38.3
SW
31
71.0
19.4
9.7
0.0
77.8
5.2
29.0
SL
26
34.6
38.5
15.4
0.0
83.1
10.9
38.5
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
7th pct
Effective mix
2.7
19th pct
Separation
24.1
89th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
78th pct
Velo range
12.8 mph
60th pct
SI · SL · SW
2024 season, 1,081 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.13
26th percentile
Where he throws
−0.07
36th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.05
26th percentile
Heart28.7%
+131.67/100
Shadow40.4%
+152.37/100
Chase21.7%
−280.53/100
Waste9.2%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
chase · SI11.0%−0.47
waste · SI4.4%−0.35
shadow · SI24.4%+0.34
shadow · SL15.9%+0.30
heart · SI16.4%+0.26
5 other locations−0.21
Total−0.13
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.