← BackJoe Ross
PHI · RHP · 2025
49.3 IP · 228 BF · 862 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
96
Stuff+
19th percentile
98
ABStuff+
24th percentile
102
Pitching+
44th percentile
17.1%
K%
23th percentile
7.5%
BB%
63th percentile
5.27
FIP
37th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 49.3 IP · 228 BF · 862 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+96
19th percentile
ABStuff+98
24th percentile
Whiff%19.4%
28th percentile
CSW%29.6%
12th percentile
Results
Pitching+102
44th percentile
RV/100-1.02
27th percentile
FIP5.27
37th percentile
RA/94.01
60th percentile
GB%46.4%
71th percentile
Command
K%17.1%
23th percentile
BB%7.5%
63th percentile
K-BB%9.6%
33th percentile
Velo91.9
80th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 49.3 IP · 228 BF · 862 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%16.5%
65th percentile
O-Whf%28.6%
5th percentile
Chase%26.2%
37th percentile
Z-Con%83.5%
65th percentile
O-Con%71.4%
10th percentile
SwStr%23.3%
11th percentile
PutAwy%13.6%
20th percentile
Approach
Zone%53.5%
80th percentile
Z-Swg%72.2%
86th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.8%
80th percentile
CS%17.1%
17th percentile
F-Str%50.9%
57th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-1.8/+1.6SI+1.0/+0.7SL+3.7/-2.0CHCB+5.2/-8.3ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.82 ft (±0.11)
Side: -2.18 ft (±0.35)
Extension: 6.75 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
47
51.1
21.3
21.3
0.0
82.3
20.9
42.6
FF
43
46.5
27.9
18.6
0.0
81.0
25.1
39.5
SL
40
47.5
25.0
25.0
0.0
83.8
13.0
47.5
CH
24
45.8
16.7
37.5
0.0
85.9
8.2
45.8
CB
14
28.6
42.9
21.4
0.0
83.7
4.4
42.9
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
60th pct
Effective mix
4.2
70th pct
Separation
16.1
13th pct
Shape scatter
3.1 in
58th pct
Velo range
11.1 mph
36th pct
FF · SI · SL · CH · CB
2025 season, 862 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.08
72th percentile
Where he throws
+0.15
85th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.07
23th percentile
Heart33.5%
+148.26/100
Shadow39.8%
+125.76/100
Chase21.6%
−278.14/100
Waste5.1%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB6.3%−0.31
heart · FB13.6%+0.27
chase · SI5.9%−0.25
heart · SI10.3%+0.22
shadow · SI11.4%+0.14
15 other locations+0.01
Total+0.08
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.