← BackKyle Freeland
COL · LHP · 2026
128.7 IP · 614 BF · 2,187 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
97
Stuff+
20th percentile
99
ABStuff+
30th percentile
103
Pitching+
44th percentile
17.6%
K%
29th percentile
4.7%
BB%
95th percentile
5.63
FIP
32th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 128.7 IP · 614 BF · 2,187 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+97
20th percentile
ABStuff+99
30th percentile
Whiff%20.4%
37th percentile
CSW%34.4%
64th percentile
Results
Pitching+103
44th percentile
RV/100-1.28
22th percentile
FIP5.63
32th percentile
RA/94.41
50th percentile
GB%40.5%
46th percentile
Command
K%17.6%
29th percentile
BB%4.7%
95th percentile
K-BB%12.9%
57th percentile
Velo87.0
18th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 128.7 IP · 614 BF · 2,187 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%9.9%
20th percentile
O-Whf%41.3%
58th percentile
Chase%33.9%
83th percentile
Z-Con%90.1%
20th percentile
O-Con%58.7%
58th percentile
SwStr%26.3%
44th percentile
PutAwy%15.9%
40th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.7%
76th percentile
Z-Swg%68.5%
65th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%51.1%
83th percentile
CS%20.8%
59th percentile
F-Str%51.3%
60th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+0.6/+3.5CB+3.7/-10.1CT+0.7/+0.4CH+3.2/+2.7SW-5.2/-5.0SI+1.6/+1.9ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.77 ft (±0.16)
Side: 2.66 ft (±0.17)
Extension: 6.56 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
103
35.0
39.8
20.4
0.0
84.5
27.6
43.7
CT
100
35.0
27.0
31.0
0.0
83.9
23.3
40.0
CB
93
43.0
25.8
28.0
0.0
85.0
9.4
51.6
CH
76
48.7
23.7
26.3
0.0
87.7
6.6
52.6
SI
49
51.0
14.3
32.7
0.0
84.0
11.9
36.7
SW
48
35.4
33.3
20.8
0.0
80.8
17.2
27.1
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
6
83rd pct
Effective mix
5.6
96th pct
Separation
15.9
11th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
75th pct
Velo range
8.9 mph
10th pct
FF · CB · CT · CH · SW · SI
The shape of it: 6 offerings, used unusually evenly — offerings that blend together, shapes that wobble start to start — the one piece here tied to strikeouts, a narrow velo range.
2026 season, 2,187 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CB
486
338
-2.06
-0.34
CH
295
227
-1.00
-0.07
CT
460
324
-0.65
-0.07
FF
514
330
-2.43
-0.01
SI
215
160
-1.06
+0.27
SW
217
163
+1.25
-0.01
Read: the SW has been his most valuable pitch this season at +1.25 per 100, the FF the least at -2.43. That ordering is the record of one season — pair it with the Stuff+ column above, which is the part more likely to repeat.
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.05
63th percentile
Where he throws
+0.09
70th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.04
40th percentile
Heart32.0%
+174.27/100
Shadow40.7%
+115.87/100
Chase19.5%
−286.13/100
Waste7.8%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB10.1%+0.21
chase · FB3.7%−0.20
heart · CT8.4%+0.14
waste · CB3.3%−0.13
shadow · CH5.9%+0.12
19 other locations−0.09
Total+0.05
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.