← BackCole Irvin
BAL · LHP · 2024
99.3 IP · 473 BF · 1,685 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
94
Stuff+
19th percentile
98
ABStuff+
27th percentile
98
Pitching+
23th percentile
16.1%
K%
19th percentile
5.5%
BB%
81th percentile
5.12
FIP
37th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 99.3 IP · 473 BF · 1,685 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+94
19th percentile
ABStuff+98
27th percentile
Whiff%15.3%
5th percentile
CSW%33.6%
47th percentile
Results
Pitching+98
23th percentile
RV/100-0.82
28th percentile
FIP5.12
37th percentile
RA/95.16
32th percentile
GB%40.9%
46th percentile
Command
K%16.1%
19th percentile
BB%5.5%
81th percentile
K-BB%10.6%
36th percentile
Velo86.0
12th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 99.3 IP · 473 BF · 1,685 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%11.6%
24th percentile
O-Whf%26.9%
5th percentile
Chase%25.8%
30th percentile
Z-Con%88.4%
24th percentile
O-Con%73.1%
9th percentile
SwStr%25.9%
34th percentile
PutAwy%15.3%
32th percentile
Approach
Zone%55.5%
92th percentile
Z-Swg%66.2%
36th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%48.2%
54th percentile
CS%24.0%
89th percentile
F-Str%51.8%
59th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SLSI+2.1/+0.5FF-1.4/-1.7CH+1.4/+2.5CT-2.9/-1.0CBring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.09 ft (±0.15)
Side: 1.14 ft (±0.20)
Extension: 6.31 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
93
52.7
19.4
25.8
0.0
84.4
15.4
38.7
SL
68
33.8
23.5
29.4
0.0
80.5
12.6
26.5
CH
67
46.3
28.4
23.9
0.0
84.8
12.1
40.3
FF
65
35.4
36.9
21.5
0.0
83.8
26.8
53.8
CT
44
31.8
36.4
25.0
0.0
85.5
23.2
47.7
CB
25
32.0
40.0
24.0
0.0
84.7
10.0
40.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
6
91st pct
Effective mix
5.3
97th pct
Separation
20.3
53rd pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
83rd pct
Velo range
14.4 mph
78th pct
SL · SI · FF · CH · CT · CB
2024 season, 1,685 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.26
93th percentile
Where he throws
+0.26
95th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.00
50th percentile
Heart35.7%
+131.67/100
Shadow39.8%
+152.37/100
Chase18.5%
−280.53/100
Waste6.0%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB9.4%+0.18
shadow · SL9.3%+0.17
chase · FB3.3%−0.16
chase · SI3.8%−0.16
shadow · SI10.3%+0.14
19 other locations+0.09
Total+0.26
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.