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CLE · RHP · 2023
92.3 IP · 444 BF · 1,707 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
98
Stuff+
40th percentile
96
ABStuff+
16th percentile
96
Pitching+
17th percentile
12.8%
K%
5th percentile
7.9%
BB%
59th percentile
5.33
FIP
40th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 92.3 IP · 444 BF · 1,707 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+98
40th percentile
ABStuff+96
16th percentile
Whiff%17.1%
13th percentile
CSW%29.3%
5th percentile
Results
Pitching+96
17th percentile
RV/100-0.41
40th percentile
FIP5.33
40th percentile
RA/93.02
80th percentile
GB%40.5%
41th percentile
Command
K%12.8%
5th percentile
BB%7.9%
59th percentile
K-BB%5.0%
16th percentile
Velo89.5
54th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 92.3 IP · 444 BF · 1,707 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%12.9%
30th percentile
O-Whf%26.5%
5th percentile
Chase%26.6%
36th percentile
Z-Con%87.1%
30th percentile
O-Con%73.5%
9th percentile
SwStr%22.8%
5th percentile
PutAwy%10.2%
5th percentile
Approach
Zone%46.0%
24th percentile
Z-Swg%71.0%
80th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%47.0%
49th percentile
CS%19.0%
32th percentile
F-Str%49.1%
42th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI+2.7/-0.1CT-1.4/+0.6FF+0.2/-1.4FS-1.2/+1.9CB+0.5/-5.8CHring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.31 ft (±0.12)
Side: -1.22 ft (±0.18)
Extension: 6.48 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
109
37.6
27.5
26.6
0.0
82.6
22.4
38.5
CT
84
39.3
23.8
31.0
0.0
83.7
20.4
39.3
FS
48
64.6
8.3
20.8
0.0
81.5
-0.7
39.6
CB
41
39.0
34.1
17.1
0.0
81.4
20.4
31.7
FF
33
21.2
39.4
33.3
0.0
83.8
33.3
54.5
CH
28
39.3
14.3
39.3
0.0
77.0
7.0
32.1
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
6
94th pct
Effective mix
5.6
99th pct
Separation
14.9
7th pct
Shape scatter
3.3 in
68th pct
Velo range
11.7 mph
46th pct
SI · CT · FF · FS · CB · CH
2023 season, 1,707 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.25
13th percentile
Where he throws
−0.18
17th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.07
31th percentile
Heart27.4%
+132.31/100
Shadow39.5%
+150.11/100
Chase23.0%
−277.79/100
Waste10.1%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · SI5.9%−0.24
shadow · CH8.7%+0.21
chase · FB3.5%−0.18
waste · CH3.7%−0.17
chase · CT5.1%−0.17
15 other locations+0.29
Total−0.25
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.