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COL · RHP · 2024
132.7 IP · 660 BF · 2,642 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
96
Stuff+
24th percentile
97
ABStuff+
17th percentile
97
Pitching+
22th percentile
16.5%
K%
21th percentile
10.5%
BB%
26th percentile
5.94
FIP
21th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 132.7 IP · 660 BF · 2,642 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+96
24th percentile
ABStuff+97
17th percentile
Whiff%18.9%
23th percentile
CSW%30.1%
14th percentile
Results
Pitching+97
22th percentile
RV/100-0.92
25th percentile
FIP5.94
21th percentile
RA/95.77
22th percentile
GB%44.4%
61th percentile
Command
K%16.5%
21th percentile
BB%10.5%
26th percentile
K-BB%6.1%
17th percentile
Velo88.7
42th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 132.7 IP · 660 BF · 2,642 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%13.9%
44th percentile
O-Whf%31.7%
18th percentile
Chase%24.0%
19th percentile
Z-Con%86.1%
44th percentile
O-Con%68.3%
18th percentile
SwStr%23.9%
14th percentile
PutAwy%12.9%
16th percentile
Approach
Zone%47.4%
29th percentile
Z-Swg%69.8%
66th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%45.8%
29th percentile
CS%19.2%
38th percentile
F-Str%49.5%
42th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FS-1.2/+1.9SI+2.7/-0.1FF+0.2/-1.4CT-1.4/+0.6CB+0.5/-5.8CHSL-1.7/-1.7ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.31 ft (±0.13)
Side: -1.43 ft (±0.21)
Extension: 6.48 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FS
188
54.3
23.9
19.1
0.0
81.6
4.9
33.5
SI
96
43.8
19.8
28.1
0.0
83.9
19.5
51.0
FF
65
30.8
26.2
33.8
0.0
84.2
29.7
41.5
CT
57
43.9
24.6
24.6
0.0
83.0
18.0
45.6
CB
47
23.4
34.0
40.4
0.0
81.8
16.5
46.8
CH
10
40.0
20.0
30.0
0.0
81.0
8.0
50.0
SL
3
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
72.7
6.0
0.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
67th pct
Effective mix
4.6
89th pct
Separation
16.0
12th pct
Shape scatter
4.0 in
98th pct
Velo range
14.7 mph
79th pct
FS · SI · FF · CT · CB
2024 season, 2,569 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.13
25th percentile
Where he throws
−0.04
42th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.09
16th percentile
Heart29.0%
+131.67/100
Shadow40.8%
+152.37/100
Chase20.9%
−280.53/100
Waste9.3%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
shadow · CH13.4%+0.30
waste · CH4.5%−0.21
chase · SI4.8%−0.20
chase · CH8.6%−0.15
shadow · SI10.3%+0.14
18 other locations−0.01
Total−0.13
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.