← BackWalker Buehler
BOS · RHP · 2025
117.3 IP · 567 BF · 2,189 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
99
Stuff+
34th percentile
99
ABStuff+
31th percentile
103
Pitching+
53th percentile
16.2%
K%
19th percentile
10.6%
BB%
29th percentile
6.11
FIP
22th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 117.3 IP · 567 BF · 2,189 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+99
34th percentile
ABStuff+99
31th percentile
Whiff%17.5%
17th percentile
CSW%31.2%
23th percentile
Results
Pitching+103
53th percentile
RV/100-0.58
38th percentile
FIP6.11
22th percentile
RA/95.60
25th percentile
GB%42.5%
55th percentile
Command
K%16.2%
19th percentile
BB%10.6%
29th percentile
K-BB%5.6%
17th percentile
Velo89.1
44th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 117.3 IP · 567 BF · 2,189 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%10.3%
15th percentile
O-Whf%34.0%
22th percentile
Chase%25.8%
33th percentile
Z-Con%89.7%
15th percentile
O-Con%66.0%
22th percentile
SwStr%24.8%
23th percentile
PutAwy%13.1%
17th percentile
Approach
Zone%47.3%
22th percentile
Z-Swg%65.6%
40th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.6%
23th percentile
CS%21.4%
68th percentile
F-Str%49.9%
49th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-1.3/+0.9CT+2.0/+1.5SI+1.3/-0.4SL+1.1/+4.1CB-3.6/+5.3SW+5.1/-0.2CH-5.0/+0.6ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.49 ft (±0.17)
Side: -1.26 ft (±0.28)
Extension: 6.54 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
82
34.1
31.7
26.8
0.0
86.4
27.7
53.7
CT
77
37.7
22.1
31.2
0.0
81.6
16.4
36.4
SL
67
38.8
23.9
29.9
0.0
82.8
17.9
32.8
SI
65
53.8
15.4
26.2
0.0
82.5
11.6
47.7
CB
46
47.8
26.1
26.1
0.0
80.3
-2.0
28.3
SW
36
38.9
25.0
25.0
0.0
78.0
17.1
13.9
CH
27
59.3
22.2
14.8
0.0
80.7
5.5
29.6
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
7
99th pct
Effective mix
6.4
100th pct
Separation
22.8
80th pct
Shape scatter
2.9 in
31st pct
Velo range
16.6 mph
92nd pct
FF · CT · SI · SL · CB · SW · CH
2025 season, 2,189 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.20
15th percentile
Where he throws
−0.20
14th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.01
47th percentile
Heart29.7%
+148.26/100
Shadow37.4%
+125.76/100
Chase23.7%
−278.14/100
Waste9.2%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB5.0%−0.25
heart · FB9.0%+0.18
waste · FB2.2%−0.13
chase · CT3.6%−0.13
chase · SI3.1%−0.13
19 other locations+0.25
Total−0.20
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.