← BackTy Blach
COL · LHP · 2023
68.3 IP · 346 BF · 1,245 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
88
Stuff+
5th percentile
93
ABStuff+
3th percentile
99
Pitching+
36th percentile
14.2%
K%
10th percentile
6.9%
BB%
72th percentile
6.36
FIP
20th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 68.3 IP · 346 BF · 1,245 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+88
5th percentile
ABStuff+93
3th percentile
Whiff%14.4%
5th percentile
CSW%31.7%
26th percentile
Results
Pitching+99
36th percentile
RV/100-1.70
15th percentile
FIP6.36
20th percentile
RA/95.00
45th percentile
GB%39.1%
35th percentile
Command
K%14.2%
10th percentile
BB%6.9%
72th percentile
K-BB%7.2%
22th percentile
Velo85.6
5th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 68.3 IP · 346 BF · 1,245 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%8.0%
5th percentile
O-Whf%29.2%
13th percentile
Chase%30.4%
69th percentile
Z-Con%92.0%
7th percentile
O-Con%70.8%
13th percentile
SwStr%24.5%
20th percentile
PutAwy%13.8%
20th percentile
Approach
Zone%51.1%
73th percentile
Z-Swg%66.8%
46th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%49.0%
70th percentile
CS%22.5%
76th percentile
F-Str%49.4%
44th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI+1.1/+1.7CH-3.2/+1.3CT-5.6/-2.0CB+2.2/-10.4FFring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.74 ft (±0.13)
Side: 3.12 ft (±0.17)
Extension: 5.14 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
146
34.2
30.1
28.8
0.0
82.9
25.4
45.2
CH
64
51.6
15.6
32.8
0.0
82.5
5.7
39.1
CT
41
39.0
24.4
31.7
0.0
83.2
12.7
36.6
CB
15
33.3
40.0
26.7
0.0
81.2
14.2
46.7
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
35th pct
Effective mix
3.1
43rd pct
Separation
16.2
14th pct
Shape scatter
3.2 in
62nd pct
Velo range
10.4 mph
30th pct
SI · CH · CT · CB
2023 season, 1,240 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.29
95th percentile
Where he throws
+0.14
81th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.15
90th percentile
Heart30.2%
+132.31/100
Shadow42.2%
+150.11/100
Chase21.7%
−277.79/100
Waste5.9%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
heart · SI22.2%+0.42
shadow · SI22.9%+0.36
chase · SI8.5%−0.34
shadow · CH10.1%+0.24
chase · CT4.3%−0.14
13 other locations−0.24
Total+0.29
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.