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COL · LHP · 2024
64.7 IP · 330 BF · 1,133 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
87
Stuff+
5th percentile
93
ABStuff+
2th percentile
97
Pitching+
21th percentile
10.9%
K%
5th percentile
5.5%
BB%
81th percentile
6.91
FIP
10th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 64.7 IP · 330 BF · 1,133 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+87
5th percentile
ABStuff+93
2th percentile
Whiff%12.5%
5th percentile
CSW%30.8%
19th percentile
Results
Pitching+97
21th percentile
RV/100-2.61
5th percentile
FIP6.91
10th percentile
RA/93.34
70th percentile
GB%41.5%
49th percentile
Command
K%10.9%
5th percentile
BB%5.5%
81th percentile
K-BB%5.5%
15th percentile
Velo85.0
5th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 64.7 IP · 330 BF · 1,133 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%8.3%
5th percentile
O-Whf%23.3%
5th percentile
Chase%29.3%
62th percentile
Z-Con%91.7%
8th percentile
O-Con%76.7%
6th percentile
SwStr%22.9%
5th percentile
PutAwy%11.1%
5th percentile
Approach
Zone%52.2%
78th percentile
Z-Swg%69.2%
60th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.1%
75th percentile
CS%22.4%
77th percentile
F-Str%55.8%
82th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI+1.1/+1.7CH-3.2/+1.3CT-5.6/-2.0CB+2.2/-10.4ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.74 ft (±0.12)
Side: 3.07 ft (±0.19)
Extension: 5.15 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
135
40.0
27.4
29.6
0.0
85.0
19.3
45.2
CH
64
50.0
20.3
26.6
0.0
82.3
0.2
37.5
CT
49
34.7
42.9
16.3
0.0
84.9
22.6
40.8
CB
22
40.9
50.0
9.1
0.0
79.5
15.6
45.5
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
30th pct
Effective mix
3.3
46th pct
Separation
14.8
7th pct
Shape scatter
3.0 in
38th pct
Velo range
9.9 mph
23rd pct
SI · CH · CT · CB
2024 season, 1,133 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.22
90th percentile
Where he throws
+0.17
87th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.04
66th percentile
Heart33.2%
+131.67/100
Shadow40.3%
+152.37/100
Chase20.5%
−280.53/100
Waste6.1%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
heart · SI22.0%+0.35
chase · SI7.0%−0.30
shadow · SI20.6%+0.29
shadow · CH11.4%+0.25
chase · CH7.5%−0.13
11 other locations−0.25
Total+0.22
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.