← BackLuis Severino
NYY · RHP · 2023
84.7 IP · 416 BF · 1,630 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
105
Stuff+
76th percentile
101
ABStuff+
60th percentile
106
Pitching+
84th percentile
19.0%
K%
34th percentile
7.9%
BB%
59th percentile
6.72
FIP
16th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 84.7 IP · 416 BF · 1,630 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+105
76th percentile
ABStuff+101
60th percentile
Whiff%17.9%
17th percentile
CSW%30.1%
15th percentile
Results
Pitching+106
84th percentile
RV/100-1.42
19th percentile
FIP6.72
16th percentile
RA/94.46
56th percentile
GB%43.7%
55th percentile
Command
K%19.0%
34th percentile
BB%7.9%
59th percentile
K-BB%11.1%
41th percentile
Velo91.6
82th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 84.7 IP · 416 BF · 1,630 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%14.1%
40th percentile
O-Whf%28.1%
5th percentile
Chase%29.2%
58th percentile
Z-Con%85.9%
40th percentile
O-Con%71.9%
10th percentile
SwStr%24.1%
17th percentile
PutAwy%13.1%
16th percentile
Approach
Zone%52.0%
80th percentile
Z-Swg%71.9%
85th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%51.4%
88th percentile
CS%18.6%
26th percentile
F-Str%55.3%
82th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+0.5/+0.4CH+4.0/+0.4SL+1.3/+4.8CT+2.7/-1.2SI+3.2/+0.6SW+3.1/+3.7ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.05 ft (±0.15)
Side: -1.78 ft (±0.23)
Extension: 6.27 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
124
28.2
33.1
26.6
0.0
84.5
30.6
56.5
CH
54
55.6
16.7
24.1
0.0
80.9
7.0
40.7
SL
54
40.7
24.1
33.3
0.0
83.9
8.0
33.3
CT
42
73.8
14.3
11.9
0.0
82.4
1.1
42.9
SI
16
56.2
12.5
31.2
0.0
85.5
8.8
25.0
SW
5
40.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
85.9
14.6
20.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
70th pct
Effective mix
4.1
79th pct
Separation
18.0
30th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
77th pct
Velo range
11.8 mph
46th pct
FF · CH · SL · CT · SI
2023 season, 1,613 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.04
62th percentile
Where he throws
+0.11
76th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.07
27th percentile
Heart32.7%
+132.31/100
Shadow39.8%
+150.11/100
Chase20.5%
−277.79/100
Waste7.1%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB19.1%+0.34
chase · FB6.5%−0.33
shadow · CH7.9%+0.19
shadow · SL8.0%+0.16
chase · CT4.1%−0.13
15 other locations−0.18
Total+0.04
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.