← BackChris Flexen
COL · RHP · 2023
94.0 IP · 466 BF · 1,751 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
92
Stuff+
12th percentile
95
ABStuff+
8th percentile
93
Pitching+
10th percentile
15.7%
K%
17th percentile
8.2%
BB%
55th percentile
7.00
FIP
13th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 94.0 IP · 466 BF · 1,751 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+92
12th percentile
ABStuff+95
8th percentile
Whiff%21.0%
35th percentile
CSW%32.1%
30th percentile
Results
Pitching+93
10th percentile
RV/100-1.96
11th percentile
FIP7.00
13th percentile
RA/96.61
19th percentile
GB%39.0%
34th percentile
Command
K%15.7%
17th percentile
BB%8.2%
55th percentile
K-BB%7.5%
23th percentile
Velo87.4
26th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 94.0 IP · 466 BF · 1,751 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%13.8%
37th percentile
O-Whf%38.2%
41th percentile
Chase%27.4%
43th percentile
Z-Con%86.2%
37th percentile
O-Con%61.8%
41th percentile
SwStr%24.7%
21th percentile
PutAwy%15.2%
28th percentile
Approach
Zone%48.1%
44th percentile
Z-Swg%69.9%
72th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%47.9%
58th percentile
CS%19.0%
32th percentile
F-Str%48.9%
40th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-0.5/+1.1CT-0.4/+2.6CH-2.6/-0.8SL-1.6/-0.3SWCB-2.4/+3.8SIring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.80 ft (±0.12)
Side: -0.37 ft (±0.23)
Extension: 6.27 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
132
27.3
30.3
34.1
0.0
86.1
30.1
54.5
CT
115
44.3
24.3
23.5
0.0
83.0
16.8
39.1
CH
52
46.2
17.3
26.9
0.0
77.3
13.9
21.2
SL
17
52.9
23.5
17.6
0.0
80.5
6.3
35.3
SW
16
56.2
6.2
37.5
0.0
76.5
7.9
31.2
SI
11
36.4
18.2
36.4
0.0
88.1
14.0
45.5
CB
6
50.0
50.0
0.0
0.0
83.5
31.2
16.7
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
35th pct
Effective mix
3.4
52nd pct
Separation
17.8
29th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
78th pct
Velo range
10.9 mph
35th pct
FF · CT · CH · SL
2023 season, 1,626 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.06
39th percentile
Where he throws
+0.06
66th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.11
17th percentile
Heart30.9%
+132.31/100
Shadow40.7%
+150.11/100
Chase20.2%
−277.79/100
Waste8.2%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB6.0%−0.30
heart · FB15.2%+0.27
shadow · CT13.4%+0.22
chase · CT6.2%−0.20
shadow · FB17.6%+0.14
19 other locations−0.18
Total−0.06
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.