← BackEric Lauer
MIL · LHP · 2023
44.0 IP · 211 BF · 841 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
91
Stuff+
9th percentile
95
ABStuff+
9th percentile
90
Pitching+
5th percentile
20.4%
K%
42th percentile
11.4%
BB%
23th percentile
8.29
FIP
6th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 44.0 IP · 211 BF · 841 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+91
9th percentile
ABStuff+95
9th percentile
Whiff%18.7%
21th percentile
CSW%29.5%
11th percentile
Results
Pitching+90
5th percentile
RV/100-2.36
5th percentile
FIP8.29
6th percentile
RA/96.75
18th percentile
GB%25.2%
5th percentile
Command
K%20.4%
42th percentile
BB%11.4%
23th percentile
K-BB%9.0%
30th percentile
Velo86.7
18th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 44.0 IP · 211 BF · 841 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%15.5%
51th percentile
O-Whf%26.8%
5th percentile
Chase%25.7%
29th percentile
Z-Con%84.5%
51th percentile
O-Con%73.2%
9th percentile
SwStr%23.8%
14th percentile
PutAwy%15.8%
34th percentile
Approach
Zone%48.2%
45th percentile
Z-Swg%69.7%
71th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%46.9%
48th percentile
CS%18.6%
26th percentile
F-Str%46.9%
26th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-0.4/-0.7CT+0.5/-0.8CB+0.2/-1.4SL+1.4/+1.4CH+1.9/+1.7ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.00 ft (±0.13)
Side: 1.66 ft (±0.17)
Extension: 6.27 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
CT
66
25.8
37.9
30.3
0.0
84.5
21.8
39.4
FF
47
27.7
34.0
31.9
0.0
83.0
33.7
51.1
CB
15
13.3
66.7
20.0
0.0
82.7
15.9
33.3
SL
14
28.6
35.7
28.6
0.0
85.0
26.4
57.1
CH
1
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
104.3
30.0
100.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
35th pct
Effective mix
3.3
49th pct
Separation
18.6
35th pct
Shape scatter
3.1 in
52nd pct
Velo range
15.5 mph
84th pct
FF · CT · CB · SL
2023 season, 835 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.10
32th percentile
Where he throws
+0.11
75th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.21
6th percentile
Heart33.4%
+132.31/100
Shadow39.6%
+150.11/100
Chase18.9%
−277.79/100
Waste8.2%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB7.4%−0.37
heart · FB16.3%+0.29
chase · CT7.4%−0.24
shadow · CT14.8%+0.24
waste · FB2.6%−0.16
15 other locations+0.15
Total−0.10
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.