← BackZack Littell
WSH · RHP · 2026
116.3 IP · 542 BF · 1,975 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
82
Stuff+
1th percentile
90
ABStuff+
1th percentile
104
Pitching+
51th percentile
13.5%
K%
10th percentile
7.2%
BB%
72th percentile
6.81
FIP
18th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 116.3 IP · 542 BF · 1,975 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+82
1th percentile
ABStuff+90
1th percentile
Whiff%14.4%
5th percentile
CSW%28.4%
5th percentile
Results
Pitching+104
51th percentile
RV/100-1.28
22th percentile
FIP6.81
18th percentile
RA/93.71
66th percentile
GB%35.1%
24th percentile
Command
K%13.5%
10th percentile
BB%7.2%
72th percentile
K-BB%6.3%
23th percentile
Velo87.8
24th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 116.3 IP · 542 BF · 1,975 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%9.7%
18th percentile
O-Whf%25.1%
5th percentile
Chase%30.3%
56th percentile
Z-Con%90.3%
18th percentile
O-Con%74.9%
9th percentile
SwStr%21.9%
5th percentile
PutAwy%11.1%
5th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.4%
73th percentile
Z-Swg%70.5%
79th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.2%
78th percentile
CS%19.0%
36th percentile
F-Str%50.1%
51th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SL+8.5/-2.6FF+0.7/+1.6FS-2.3/+0.2SI+2.4/+0.7SW-4.8/-1.4ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.11 ft (±0.14)
Side: -0.71 ft (±0.14)
Extension: 6.13 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FS
111
45.0
27.9
20.7
0.0
85.4
12.7
37.8
SL
111
30.6
35.1
23.4
0.0
84.3
25.7
45.0
FF
96
29.2
38.5
25.0
0.0
86.0
35.0
52.1
SI
74
33.8
36.5
25.7
0.0
84.6
20.5
48.6
SW
33
36.4
30.3
24.2
0.0
84.0
19.1
24.2
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
54th pct
Effective mix
4.6
80th pct
Separation
19.2
45th pct
Shape scatter
2.9 in
34th pct
Velo range
12.3 mph
53rd pct
SL · FF · FS · SI · SW
2026 season, 1,975 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
FF
503
328
-3.04
-0.01
FS
456
293
-0.37
+0.13
SI
286
225
-2.92
+0.27
SL
559
378
0.00
+0.04
SW
171
143
+0.05
-0.01
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.30
95th percentile
Where he throws
+0.18
85th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.12
87th percentile
Heart34.6%
+174.27/100
Shadow39.5%
+115.87/100
Chase19.1%
−286.13/100
Waste6.7%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB11.3%+0.24
shadow · SL15.1%+0.21
chase · FB3.6%−0.20
shadow · CH9.4%+0.19
heart · SI6.3%+0.16
11 other locations−0.29
Total+0.30
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.