← BackBryan Abreu
HOU · RHP · 2023
66.7 IP · 288 BF · 1,201 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
117
Stuff+
98th percentile
111
ABStuff+
99th percentile
102
Pitching+
60th percentile
34.4%
K%
95th percentile
10.4%
BB%
31th percentile
3.43
FIP
90th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 66.7 IP · 288 BF · 1,201 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+117
98th percentile
ABStuff+111
99th percentile
Whiff%37.8%
98th percentile
CSW%40.5%
93th percentile
Results
Pitching+102
60th percentile
RV/100+1.34
91th percentile
FIP3.43
90th percentile
RA/97.56
11th percentile
GB%38.6%
32th percentile
Command
K%34.4%
95th percentile
BB%10.4%
31th percentile
K-BB%24.0%
92th percentile
Velo91.6
82th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 66.7 IP · 288 BF · 1,201 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%24.7%
94th percentile
O-Whf%66.1%
99th percentile
Chase%27.3%
42th percentile
Z-Con%75.3%
95th percentile
O-Con%33.9%
95th percentile
SwStr%34.3%
97th percentile
PutAwy%26.3%
93th percentile
Approach
Zone%48.0%
43th percentile
Z-Swg%63.8%
25th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.8%
25th percentile
CS%20.5%
51th percentile
F-Str%48.4%
37th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SL-7.1/+2.5FF+0.9/+2.1ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.69 ft (±0.18)
Side: -2.30 ft (±0.26)
Extension: 6.51 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SL
96
44.8
24.0
29.2
0.0
82.7
9.2
33.3
FF
57
28.1
36.8
22.8
0.0
83.7
29.1
35.1
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
2
0th pct
Effective mix
2.0
5th pct
Separation
27.7
96th pct
Shape scatter
3.9 in
96th pct
Velo range
10.1 mph
25th pct
SL · FF
2023 season, 1,201 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.22
15th percentile
Where he throws
−0.21
12th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.01
50th percentile
Heart30.7%
+132.31/100
Shadow36.0%
+150.11/100
Chase22.3%
−277.79/100
Waste10.9%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB8.5%−0.43
shadow · SL21.4%+0.41
waste · SL6.9%−0.28
heart · FB14.2%+0.25
waste · FB4.0%−0.25
7 other locations+0.07
Total−0.22
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.