← BackBryan Abreu
HOU · RHP · 2024
72.3 IP · 322 BF · 1,290 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
116
Stuff+
97th percentile
110
ABStuff+
99th percentile
102
Pitching+
56th percentile
32.0%
K%
92th percentile
9.9%
BB%
32th percentile
3.87
FIP
75th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 72.3 IP · 322 BF · 1,290 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+116
97th percentile
ABStuff+110
99th percentile
Whiff%31.2%
92th percentile
CSW%39.0%
91th percentile
Results
Pitching+102
56th percentile
RV/100+0.22
62th percentile
FIP3.87
75th percentile
RA/94.73
41th percentile
GB%40.3%
43th percentile
Command
K%32.0%
92th percentile
BB%9.9%
32th percentile
K-BB%22.0%
90th percentile
Velo91.1
74th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 72.3 IP · 322 BF · 1,290 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%18.5%
79th percentile
O-Whf%60.9%
94th percentile
Chase%27.8%
47th percentile
Z-Con%81.5%
79th percentile
O-Con%39.1%
95th percentile
SwStr%32.8%
93th percentile
PutAwy%25.8%
93th percentile
Approach
Zone%50.1%
57th percentile
Z-Swg%64.5%
24th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%46.2%
33th percentile
CS%21.9%
71th percentile
F-Str%48.4%
34th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SL-7.1/+2.5FF+0.9/+2.1CHring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.75 ft (±0.18)
Side: -2.21 ft (±0.28)
Extension: 6.51 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SL
93
50.5
22.6
24.7
0.0
83.7
9.2
30.1
FF
87
29.9
34.5
27.6
0.0
85.3
30.3
47.1
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
2
0th pct
Effective mix
2.0
6th pct
Separation
28.7
98th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
77th pct
Velo range
10.5 mph
31st pct
SL · FF
2024 season, 1,283 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.04
61th percentile
Where he throws
−0.02
46th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.07
77th percentile
Heart31.1%
+131.67/100
Shadow39.0%
+152.37/100
Chase20.8%
−280.53/100
Waste9.0%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB8.4%−0.41
shadow · SL21.1%+0.39
heart · FB16.7%+0.32
waste · FB3.5%−0.22
waste · SL5.2%−0.20
6 other locations+0.16
Total+0.04
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.