← BackBryan Abreu
HOU · RHP · 2025
69.0 IP · 297 BF · 1,189 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
117
Stuff+
98th percentile
110
ABStuff+
99th percentile
105
Pitching+
63th percentile
35.4%
K%
97th percentile
10.4%
BB%
31th percentile
2.76
FIP
95th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 69.0 IP · 297 BF · 1,189 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+117
98th percentile
ABStuff+110
99th percentile
Whiff%39.2%
99th percentile
CSW%39.8%
94th percentile
Results
Pitching+105
63th percentile
RV/100+1.18
89th percentile
FIP2.76
95th percentile
RA/94.96
39th percentile
GB%35.9%
28th percentile
Command
K%35.4%
97th percentile
BB%10.4%
31th percentile
K-BB%24.9%
93th percentile
Velo92.0
81th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 69.0 IP · 297 BF · 1,189 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%25.8%
97th percentile
O-Whf%64.1%
98th percentile
Chase%29.9%
72th percentile
Z-Con%74.2%
95th percentile
O-Con%35.9%
95th percentile
SwStr%34.1%
97th percentile
PutAwy%28.7%
98th percentile
Approach
Zone%45.9%
14th percentile
Z-Swg%65.4%
38th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%46.2%
39th percentile
CS%18.7%
34th percentile
F-Str%46.6%
25th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+0.9/+2.1SL-7.1/+2.5SICHring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.64 ft (±0.19)
Side: -2.50 ft (±0.26)
Extension: 6.57 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SL
85
40.0
23.5
30.6
0.0
82.6
6.3
42.4
FF
69
29.0
26.1
31.9
0.0
83.6
31.3
49.3
SI
2
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
91.8
4.0
50.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
2
0th pct
Effective mix
2.0
5th pct
Separation
29.3
99th pct
Shape scatter
3.0 in
44th pct
Velo range
10.8 mph
32nd pct
FF · SL
2025 season, 1,170 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.22
13th percentile
Where he throws
−0.18
16th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.04
34th percentile
Heart29.9%
+148.26/100
Shadow38.3%
+125.76/100
Chase21.3%
−278.14/100
Waste10.5%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB8.7%−0.43
heart · FB16.9%+0.34
shadow · SL17.7%+0.27
waste · FB4.4%−0.26
waste · SL5.8%−0.23
9 other locations+0.09
Total−0.22
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.