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BOS · RHP · 2025
39.7 IP · 203 BF · 749 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
108
Stuff+
84th percentile
104
ABStuff+
81th percentile
105
Pitching+
67th percentile
15.8%
K%
18th percentile
8.4%
BB%
52th percentile
6.66
FIP
16th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 39.7 IP · 203 BF · 749 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+108
84th percentile
ABStuff+104
81th percentile
Whiff%20.1%
32th percentile
CSW%34.2%
56th percentile
Results
Pitching+105
67th percentile
RV/100-1.77
16th percentile
FIP6.66
16th percentile
RA/94.54
49th percentile
GB%49.0%
79th percentile
Command
K%15.8%
18th percentile
BB%8.4%
52th percentile
K-BB%7.4%
22th percentile
Velo89.7
53th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 39.7 IP · 203 BF · 749 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%9.6%
10th percentile
O-Whf%40.0%
43th percentile
Chase%29.0%
63th percentile
Z-Con%90.4%
10th percentile
O-Con%60.0%
43th percentile
SwStr%27.1%
51th percentile
PutAwy%16.0%
39th percentile
Approach
Zone%47.1%
21th percentile
Z-Swg%61.8%
16th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.5%
23th percentile
CS%22.9%
81th percentile
F-Str%46.3%
24th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI-3.9/+1.9SW-3.1/-1.2FS-2.6/+0.2FF-4.2/+1.9ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.50 ft (±0.17)
Side: -2.53 ft (±0.19)
Extension: 6.06 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
66
53.0
24.2
19.7
0.0
86.6
8.8
47.0
SW
44
40.9
27.3
25.0
0.0
83.1
11.5
38.6
FS
35
57.1
5.7
37.1
0.0
87.2
2.2
54.3
FF
4
0.0
50.0
50.0
0.0
77.4
35.8
50.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
27th pct
Effective mix
3.4
42nd pct
Separation
20.6
59th pct
Shape scatter
3.1 in
55th pct
Velo range
11.4 mph
42nd pct
SI · SW · FS · FF
2025 season, 749 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.10
30th percentile
Where he throws
−0.17
17th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.07
80th percentile
Heart29.1%
+148.26/100
Shadow39.0%
+125.76/100
Chase22.0%
−278.14/100
Waste9.9%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
heart · SI13.9%+0.29
chase · SI6.9%−0.29
waste · SL5.3%−0.21
shadow · SI16.4%+0.20
waste · SI2.5%−0.20
11 other locations+0.11
Total−0.10
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.