← BackMitch Keller
PIT · RHP · 2026
108.3 IP · 503 BF · 1,887 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
98
Stuff+
27th percentile
98
ABStuff+
25th percentile
101
Pitching+
32th percentile
17.7%
K%
29th percentile
8.3%
BB%
59th percentile
5.02
FIP
45th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 108.3 IP · 503 BF · 1,887 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+98
27th percentile
ABStuff+98
25th percentile
Whiff%18.7%
25th percentile
CSW%31.7%
31th percentile
Results
Pitching+101
32th percentile
RV/100-0.68
35th percentile
FIP5.02
45th percentile
RA/95.07
35th percentile
GB%37.9%
34th percentile
Command
K%17.7%
29th percentile
BB%8.3%
59th percentile
K-BB%9.3%
37th percentile
Velo88.7
36th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 108.3 IP · 503 BF · 1,887 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%11.0%
27th percentile
O-Whf%35.1%
31th percentile
Chase%29.4%
49th percentile
Z-Con%89.0%
27th percentile
O-Con%64.9%
31th percentile
SwStr%25.1%
28th percentile
PutAwy%16.1%
41th percentile
Approach
Zone%48.5%
63th percentile
Z-Swg%66.5%
48th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%47.4%
52th percentile
CS%20.5%
55th percentile
F-Str%47.6%
33th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-0.6/-0.6SI-1.1/+0.7SW+0.4/+3.6SL-0.5/+0.4CB-3.6/+3.2CH-2.7/+2.1CT+1.1/+0.2ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.69 ft (±0.13)
Side: -2.03 ft (±0.22)
Extension: 6.61 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
111
26.1
35.1
30.6
0.0
84.2
30.3
49.5
SI
71
47.9
21.1
29.6
0.0
88.0
13.7
53.5
SW
67
32.8
28.4
25.4
0.0
79.9
14.2
34.3
SL
39
51.3
12.8
33.3
0.0
84.0
2.1
35.9
CH
34
44.1
17.6
38.2
0.0
84.9
2.5
32.4
CT
28
42.9
21.4
25.0
0.0
80.3
9.5
21.4
CB
14
42.9
28.6
28.6
0.0
81.9
5.6
50.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
7
97th pct
Effective mix
6.1
99th pct
Separation
20.9
66th pct
Shape scatter
3.1 in
50th pct
Velo range
15.5 mph
87th pct
FF · SI · SW · SL · CB · CH · CT
2026 season, 1,887 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CB
171
123
-1.34
-0.34
CH
169
120
-1.99
-0.07
CT
140
99
-3.10
-0.07
FF
603
328
+1.44
-0.01
SI
322
215
-1.34
+0.27
SL
180
130
+0.53
+0.04
SW
302
194
-2.71
-0.01
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.18
85th percentile
Where he throws
+0.12
75th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.05
70th percentile
Heart34.4%
+174.27/100
Shadow38.7%
+115.87/100
Chase19.5%
−286.13/100
Waste7.4%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB14.9%+0.31
chase · FB3.9%−0.21
heart · SI6.6%+0.16
chase · SI3.1%−0.14
shadow · SL9.2%+0.13
19 other locations−0.07
Total+0.18
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.