← BackMichael Kopech
CWS · RHP · 2024
62.0 IP · 279 BF · 1,141 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
123
Stuff+
99th percentile
109
ABStuff+
98th percentile
112
Pitching+
97th percentile
31.5%
K%
92th percentile
11.5%
BB%
20th percentile
4.37
FIP
59th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 62.0 IP · 279 BF · 1,141 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+123
99th percentile
ABStuff+109
98th percentile
Whiff%31.3%
92th percentile
CSW%37.4%
84th percentile
Results
Pitching+112
97th percentile
RV/100+0.39
67th percentile
FIP4.37
59th percentile
RA/93.19
73th percentile
GB%38.8%
36th percentile
Command
K%31.5%
92th percentile
BB%11.5%
20th percentile
K-BB%20.1%
83th percentile
Velo96.7
99th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 62.0 IP · 279 BF · 1,141 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%24.3%
94th percentile
O-Whf%47.5%
73th percentile
Chase%28.9%
58th percentile
Z-Con%75.7%
95th percentile
O-Con%52.5%
73th percentile
SwStr%31.8%
91th percentile
PutAwy%23.7%
90th percentile
Approach
Zone%50.9%
66th percentile
Z-Swg%64.4%
23th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%47.0%
42th percentile
CS%20.1%
50th percentile
F-Str%53.3%
70th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+0.7/-2.4SLCT-3.2/+1.8ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.72 ft (±0.12)
Side: -2.33 ft (±0.16)
Extension: 6.87 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
107
36.4
39.3
17.8
0.0
83.0
30.3
42.1
SL
26
34.6
38.5
23.1
0.0
83.9
12.1
38.5
CT
19
57.9
31.6
5.3
0.0
81.8
10.1
36.8
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
7th pct
Effective mix
1.9
4th pct
Separation
18.4
33rd pct
Shape scatter
2.9 in
38th pct
Velo range
11.6 mph
45th pct
FF · SL · CT
2024 season, 1,141 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.16
20th percentile
Where he throws
+0.10
74th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.26
1th percentile
Heart35.1%
+131.67/100
Shadow37.3%
+152.37/100
Chase20.3%
−280.53/100
Waste7.4%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB15.0%−0.74
heart · FB30.1%+0.58
shadow · FB29.3%+0.33
waste · FB4.2%−0.26
chase · CT2.3%−0.07
7 other locations+0.01
Total−0.16
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.