← BackAlex Lange
KC · RHP · 2026
56.0 IP · 276 BF · 1,135 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
99
Stuff+
32th percentile
100
ABStuff+
38th percentile
97
Pitching+
11th percentile
21.7%
K%
54th percentile
12.0%
BB%
24th percentile
6.35
FIP
22th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 56.0 IP · 276 BF · 1,135 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+99
32th percentile
ABStuff+100
38th percentile
Whiff%25.9%
75th percentile
CSW%33.2%
50th percentile
Results
Pitching+97
11th percentile
RV/100-1.31
22th percentile
FIP6.35
22th percentile
RA/95.46
27th percentile
GB%45.5%
67th percentile
Command
K%21.7%
54th percentile
BB%12.0%
24th percentile
K-BB%9.8%
40th percentile
Velo91.7
76th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 56.0 IP · 276 BF · 1,135 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%12.2%
38th percentile
O-Whf%51.4%
89th percentile
Chase%29.6%
50th percentile
Z-Con%87.8%
38th percentile
O-Con%48.6%
89th percentile
SwStr%26.9%
52th percentile
PutAwy%17.5%
54th percentile
Approach
Zone%44.8%
24th percentile
Z-Swg%67.4%
56th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%46.5%
43th percentile
CS%18.3%
27th percentile
F-Str%50.0%
50th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SL-3.4/-5.8SI-1.9/-1.3CH-3.7/-2.0CT-1.4/-2.6FF-2.3/-2.0ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.80 ft (±0.12)
Side: -1.86 ft (±0.24)
Extension: 6.37 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SL
50
46.0
28.0
26.0
0.0
82.9
5.5
40.0
SI
42
47.6
26.2
23.8
0.0
86.3
10.3
54.8
CH
39
46.2
33.3
17.9
0.0
78.6
3.0
35.9
CT
26
50.0
23.1
26.9
0.0
85.5
11.6
34.6
FF
19
31.6
21.1
36.8
0.0
86.4
32.3
57.9
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
54th pct
Effective mix
4.7
80th pct
Separation
13.8
3rd pct
Shape scatter
2.9 in
30th pct
Velo range
8.0 mph
5th pct
SL · SI · CH · CT · FF
2026 season, 1,135 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CH
245
143
-1.02
-0.07
CT
151
106
-3.40
-0.07
FF
116
82
-1.58
-0.01
SI
267
160
-2.66
+0.27
SL
356
181
+0.47
+0.04
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.18
22th percentile
Where he throws
−0.29
6th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.12
85th percentile
Heart25.5%
+174.27/100
Shadow40.5%
+115.87/100
Chase22.9%
−286.13/100
Waste11.1%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
chase · SI4.8%−0.22
waste · SL4.7%−0.19
shadow · CH9.3%+0.19
heart · SI7.4%+0.18
waste · CH3.5%−0.15
15 other locations+0.02
Total−0.18
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.