← BackTrevor Megill
MIL · RHP · 2024
43.0 IP · 181 BF · 666 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
119
Stuff+
99th percentile
109
ABStuff+
98th percentile
116
Pitching+
99th percentile
27.6%
K%
82th percentile
5.5%
BB%
81th percentile
3.35
FIP
88th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 43.0 IP · 181 BF · 666 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+119
99th percentile
ABStuff+109
98th percentile
Whiff%26.9%
78th percentile
CSW%36.4%
78th percentile
Results
Pitching+116
99th percentile
RV/100+1.64
92th percentile
FIP3.35
88th percentile
RA/92.93
77th percentile
GB%34.7%
20th percentile
Command
K%27.6%
82th percentile
BB%5.5%
81th percentile
K-BB%22.1%
90th percentile
Velo95.5
99th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 43.0 IP · 181 BF · 666 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%12.6%
33th percentile
O-Whf%60.6%
94th percentile
Chase%32.8%
87th percentile
Z-Con%87.4%
33th percentile
O-Con%39.4%
95th percentile
SwStr%29.3%
76th percentile
PutAwy%21.7%
82th percentile
Approach
Zone%52.5%
79th percentile
Z-Swg%70.1%
68th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%52.4%
90th percentile
CS%18.9%
34th percentile
F-Str%51.9%
60th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+1.9/+1.6CB+7.9/-3.6ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.60 ft (±0.11)
Side: -0.24 ft (±0.14)
Extension: 6.64 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
99
34.3
36.4
22.2
0.0
86.5
28.0
44.4
CB
19
36.8
31.6
26.3
0.0
79.0
11.6
31.6
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
2
0th pct
Effective mix
1.8
2nd pct
Separation
28.6
98th pct
Shape scatter
3.2 in
68th pct
Velo range
11.4 mph
42nd pct
FF · CB
2024 season, 666 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.01
49th percentile
Where he throws
+0.07
67th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.08
17th percentile
Heart36.2%
+131.67/100
Shadow36.5%
+152.37/100
Chase17.8%
−280.53/100
Waste9.4%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB30.1%+0.58
chase · FB10.3%−0.51
shadow · FB27.8%+0.31
waste · CB6.1%−0.23
waste · FB3.0%−0.19
4 other locations+0.02
Total−0.01
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.