← BackTylor Megill
NYM · RHP · 2023
111.7 IP · 568 BF · 2,233 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
104
Stuff+
71th percentile
101
ABStuff+
60th percentile
100
Pitching+
47th percentile
18.5%
K%
30th percentile
10.2%
BB%
33th percentile
5.66
FIP
32th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 111.7 IP · 568 BF · 2,233 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+104
71th percentile
ABStuff+101
60th percentile
Whiff%21.0%
35th percentile
CSW%31.1%
22th percentile
Results
Pitching+100
47th percentile
RV/100-0.78
29th percentile
FIP5.66
32th percentile
RA/94.76
50th percentile
GB%44.2%
56th percentile
Command
K%18.5%
30th percentile
BB%10.2%
33th percentile
K-BB%8.3%
26th percentile
Velo90.2
65th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 111.7 IP · 568 BF · 2,233 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%14.3%
41th percentile
O-Whf%39.1%
44th percentile
Chase%23.6%
17th percentile
Z-Con%85.7%
41th percentile
O-Con%60.9%
44th percentile
SwStr%24.8%
22th percentile
PutAwy%15.5%
31th percentile
Approach
Zone%48.5%
48th percentile
Z-Swg%67.6%
52th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.9%
26th percentile
CS%19.3%
36th percentile
F-Str%42.4%
12th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+1.3/+1.5SL-7.6/+1.2CH-2.8/-2.5CB-5.9/+0.9SI-1.0/-0.6FSring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.98 ft (±0.14)
Side: -1.61 ft (±0.30)
Extension: 7.26 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
219
44.7
26.0
25.1
0.0
84.9
19.5
48.4
SL
79
36.7
30.4
26.6
0.0
83.3
10.0
39.2
CH
70
50.0
25.7
18.6
0.0
82.0
4.8
30.0
CB
22
40.9
27.3
22.7
0.0
78.1
9.0
36.4
FS
4
75.0
25.0
0.0
0.0
85.6
-9.2
50.0
SI
2
50.0
0.0
50.0
0.0
82.9
-1.7
0.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
35th pct
Effective mix
3.1
43rd pct
Separation
23.2
81st pct
Shape scatter
3.7 in
92nd pct
Velo range
17.8 mph
94th pct
FF · SL · CH · CB
2023 season, 2,209 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.17
21th percentile
Where he throws
−0.06
39th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.11
17th percentile
Heart30.0%
+132.31/100
Shadow39.1%
+150.11/100
Chase22.4%
−277.79/100
Waste8.5%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB10.1%−0.51
heart · FB20.0%+0.36
waste · FB3.4%−0.21
shadow · FB22.1%+0.18
shadow · SL8.2%+0.16
15 other locations−0.15
Total−0.17
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.