← BackJhoan Durán
MIN · RHP · 2025
67.7 IP · 284 BF · 1,073 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
115
Stuff+
97th percentile
109
ABStuff+
98th percentile
114
Pitching+
98th percentile
28.2%
K%
86th percentile
5.3%
BB%
86th percentile
2.58
FIP
95th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 67.7 IP · 284 BF · 1,073 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+115
97th percentile
ABStuff+109
98th percentile
Whiff%28.9%
85th percentile
CSW%34.8%
64th percentile
Results
Pitching+114
98th percentile
RV/100+1.79
95th percentile
FIP2.58
95th percentile
RA/94.39
52th percentile
GB%65.4%
98th percentile
Command
K%28.2%
86th percentile
BB%5.3%
86th percentile
K-BB%22.9%
91th percentile
Velo96.2
99th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 67.7 IP · 284 BF · 1,073 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%18.0%
76th percentile
O-Whf%54.1%
89th percentile
Chase%32.8%
88th percentile
Z-Con%82.0%
76th percentile
O-Con%45.9%
89th percentile
SwStr%28.2%
67th percentile
PutAwy%25.1%
93th percentile
Approach
Zone%51.1%
56th percentile
Z-Swg%72.8%
89th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%53.2%
92th percentile
CS%15.8%
5th percentile
F-Str%48.1%
36th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FS+0.1/-2.6FF-2.4/-4.8CB+2.6/-5.2SW-1.3/-6.1ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.01 ft (±0.12)
Side: -2.30 ft (±0.16)
Extension: 6.19 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FS
100
77.0
9.0
12.0
0.0
84.4
-10.0
43.0
FF
52
40.4
30.8
28.8
0.0
86.2
24.5
46.2
CB
30
70.0
10.0
20.0
0.0
80.3
-5.0
33.3
SW
3
66.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
71.3
25.7
0.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
27th pct
Effective mix
3.4
42nd pct
Separation
23.4
85th pct
Shape scatter
2.9 in
35th pct
Velo range
13.3 mph
67th pct
FS · FF · CB · SW
2025 season, 1,073 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.10
75th percentile
Where he throws
+0.06
67th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.03
66th percentile
Heart32.3%
+148.26/100
Shadow40.6%
+125.76/100
Chase18.8%
−278.14/100
Waste8.3%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
shadow · CH18.3%+0.39
heart · FB14.2%+0.29
chase · FB5.1%−0.26
waste · FB2.3%−0.14
waste · CB3.2%−0.12
11 other locations−0.07
Total+0.10
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.