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WSH · RHP · 2024
49.0 IP · 231 BF · 939 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
97
Stuff+
28th percentile
99
ABStuff+
31th percentile
99
Pitching+
32th percentile
19.0%
K%
35th percentile
12.1%
BB%
17th percentile
5.81
FIP
23th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 49.0 IP · 231 BF · 939 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+97
28th percentile
ABStuff+99
31th percentile
Whiff%23.6%
56th percentile
CSW%30.8%
19th percentile
Results
Pitching+99
32th percentile
RV/100-0.42
41th percentile
FIP5.81
23th percentile
RA/93.49
67th percentile
GB%28.6%
5th percentile
Command
K%19.0%
35th percentile
BB%12.1%
17th percentile
K-BB%6.9%
20th percentile
Velo91.9
82th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 49.0 IP · 231 BF · 939 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%15.8%
60th percentile
O-Whf%44.4%
62th percentile
Chase%26.8%
39th percentile
Z-Con%84.2%
60th percentile
O-Con%55.6%
62th percentile
SwStr%24.7%
21th percentile
PutAwy%13.8%
21th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.9%
54th percentile
Z-Swg%71.4%
78th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%49.1%
64th percentile
CS%16.3%
5th percentile
F-Str%47.2%
25th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+2.4/+1.1SL-0.4/-0.7CHring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.10 ft (±0.14)
Side: -2.74 ft (±0.20)
Extension: 6.31 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
122
25.4
41.8
18.9
0.0
84.5
34.9
44.3
SL
31
41.9
29.0
22.6
0.0
79.9
13.8
38.7
CH
1
0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
69.4
44.0
0.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
2
0th pct
Effective mix
1.8
1st pct
Separation
21.4
67th pct
Shape scatter
2.5 in
4th pct
Velo range
7.4 mph
4th pct
FF · SL
The shape of it: 2 offerings, with one clear go-to — about-average gaps between them, each pitch repeats its shape, a narrow velo range.
2024 season, 926 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.16
20th percentile
Where he throws
−0.16
21th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.01
45th percentile
Where the value comes from: he lives in the cheaper parts of the zone more than most.
Heart31.3%
+131.67/100
Shadow37.4%
+152.37/100
Chase19.2%
−280.53/100
Waste12.1%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB26.3%+0.51
chase · FB10.2%−0.51
shadow · FB30.6%+0.34
waste · SL7.8%−0.31
waste · FB3.8%−0.24
7 other locations+0.04
Total−0.16
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.