← BackJake Irvin
WSH · RHP · 2025
165.7 IP · 788 BF · 2,944 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
101
Stuff+
49th percentile
101
ABStuff+
54th percentile
103
Pitching+
48th percentile
15.7%
K%
17th percentile
7.9%
BB%
58th percentile
6.31
FIP
20th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 165.7 IP · 788 BF · 2,944 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+101
49th percentile
ABStuff+101
54th percentile
Whiff%16.6%
13th percentile
CSW%32.4%
35th percentile
Results
Pitching+103
48th percentile
RV/100-1.00
28th percentile
FIP6.31
20th percentile
RA/95.60
25th percentile
GB%43.5%
59th percentile
Command
K%15.7%
17th percentile
BB%7.9%
58th percentile
K-BB%7.9%
24th percentile
Velo86.8
17th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 165.7 IP · 788 BF · 2,944 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%10.2%
14th percentile
O-Whf%35.1%
24th percentile
Chase%26.6%
40th percentile
Z-Con%89.8%
14th percentile
O-Con%64.9%
24th percentile
SwStr%25.5%
31th percentile
PutAwy%13.1%
17th percentile
Approach
Zone%55.0%
90th percentile
Z-Swg%63.2%
22th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%46.8%
45th percentile
CS%22.6%
79th percentile
F-Str%52.2%
67th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+0.6/+1.3CB+3.6/+2.6SI+2.0/+0.5CH+2.1/-0.9CT+2.0/+0.4SLring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.67 ft (±0.17)
Side: -2.25 ft (±0.18)
Extension: 7.06 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
178
23.6
35.4
30.3
0.0
86.1
30.8
56.2
SI
155
56.1
18.7
23.2
0.0
83.6
6.2
41.3
CB
149
49.7
28.2
18.8
0.0
82.2
7.6
41.6
CH
68
44.1
35.3
17.6
0.0
87.9
10.2
48.5
SL
26
69.2
15.4
7.7
0.0
84.9
5.5
42.3
CT
19
42.1
21.1
31.6
0.0
83.4
24.0
52.6
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
6
88th pct
Effective mix
4.6
83rd pct
Separation
19.9
51st pct
Shape scatter
3.3 in
72nd pct
Velo range
14.5 mph
79th pct
FF · CB · SI · CH · CT · SL
2025 season, 2,944 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.10
77th percentile
Where he throws
+0.23
93th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.12
11th percentile
Heart34.2%
+148.26/100
Shadow41.8%
+125.76/100
Chase17.5%
−278.14/100
Waste6.6%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB5.5%−0.28
heart · FB11.4%+0.23
heart · SI9.5%+0.20
shadow · CB12.4%+0.13
chase · SI2.8%−0.11
19 other locations−0.07
Total+0.10
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.