← BackJake Woodford
STL · RHP · 2023
40.0 IP · 209 BF · 864 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
99
Stuff+
43th percentile
100
ABStuff+
47th percentile
99
Pitching+
34th percentile
12.9%
K%
5th percentile
10.0%
BB%
35th percentile
7.68
FIP
8th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 40.0 IP · 209 BF · 864 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+99
43th percentile
ABStuff+100
47th percentile
Whiff%13.9%
5th percentile
CSW%30.9%
20th percentile
Results
Pitching+99
34th percentile
RV/100-2.10
5th percentile
FIP7.68
8th percentile
RA/94.05
64th percentile
GB%50.6%
78th percentile
Command
K%12.9%
5th percentile
BB%10.0%
35th percentile
K-BB%2.9%
5th percentile
Velo87.6
29th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 40.0 IP · 209 BF · 864 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%11.3%
19th percentile
O-Whf%23.4%
5th percentile
Chase%17.7%
5th percentile
Z-Con%88.7%
19th percentile
O-Con%76.6%
6th percentile
SwStr%24.9%
23th percentile
PutAwy%8.7%
5th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.5%
57th percentile
Z-Swg%66.4%
43th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%41.8%
10th percentile
CS%23.7%
85th percentile
F-Str%51.0%
55th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI0.0/+0.8SW-1.9/+3.1CBFFCT+0.1/-0.2CHSLring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.33 ft (±0.15)
Side: -1.80 ft (±0.35)
Extension: 6.51 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
80
55.0
13.8
30.0
0.0
85.1
6.6
47.5
SW
47
44.7
27.7
23.4
0.0
87.4
14.3
51.1
CB
10
70.0
30.0
0.0
0.0
75.1
6.5
40.0
FF
9
22.2
33.3
44.4
0.0
89.2
27.2
88.9
CT
7
42.9
14.3
28.6
0.0
78.2
23.2
57.1
CH
5
60.0
0.0
20.0
0.0
83.9
16.1
40.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
6
94th pct
Effective mix
4.0
78th pct
Separation
20.7
57th pct
Shape scatter
3.4 in
80th pct
Velo range
16.3 mph
88th pct
SI · SW · CB · FF · CT · CH
2023 season, 856 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.13
80th percentile
Where he throws
+0.05
65th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.08
76th percentile
Heart31.8%
+132.31/100
Shadow39.6%
+150.11/100
Chase20.7%
−277.79/100
Waste7.9%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
heart · SI18.2%+0.34
chase · SI8.4%−0.34
shadow · SI21.6%+0.34
shadow · SL8.1%+0.16
waste · SI1.9%−0.14
19 other locations−0.22
Total+0.13
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.