← BackRyan Helsley
STL · RHP · 2023
35.0 IP · 147 BF · 606 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
118
Stuff+
98th percentile
110
ABStuff+
98th percentile
113
Pitching+
98th percentile
35.4%
K%
96th percentile
10.9%
BB%
26th percentile
2.65
FIP
95th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 35.0 IP · 147 BF · 606 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+118
98th percentile
ABStuff+110
98th percentile
Whiff%32.3%
92th percentile
CSW%36.2%
74th percentile
Results
Pitching+113
98th percentile
RV/100+1.61
93th percentile
FIP2.65
95th percentile
RA/95.14
42th percentile
GB%40.8%
42th percentile
Command
K%35.4%
96th percentile
BB%10.9%
26th percentile
K-BB%24.5%
92th percentile
Velo94.5
96th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 35.0 IP · 147 BF · 606 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%24.9%
94th percentile
O-Whf%48.0%
76th percentile
Chase%31.9%
80th percentile
Z-Con%75.1%
95th percentile
O-Con%52.0%
76th percentile
SwStr%30.7%
85th percentile
PutAwy%24.5%
91th percentile
Approach
Zone%49.3%
55th percentile
Z-Swg%68.6%
61th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.0%
78th percentile
CS%17.1%
13th percentile
F-Str%47.6%
31th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+1.0/+1.2SL-0.6/-0.2CB+2.3/-2.6ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.02 ft (±0.12)
Side: -0.37 ft (±0.20)
Extension: 6.66 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
50
36.0
26.0
30.0
0.0
86.1
27.7
48.0
SL
23
52.2
30.4
4.3
0.0
76.1
10.0
21.7
CB
3
33.3
66.7
0.0
0.0
82.9
8.0
33.3
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
9th pct
Effective mix
2.4
16th pct
Separation
22.9
78th pct
Shape scatter
3.0 in
44th pct
Velo range
17.6 mph
94th pct
FF · SL · CB
2023 season, 606 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.08
70th percentile
Where he throws
+0.14
82th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.06
32th percentile
Heart34.8%
+132.31/100
Shadow38.9%
+150.11/100
Chase18.0%
−277.79/100
Waste8.3%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB8.9%−0.45
heart · FB23.4%+0.42
shadow · SL15.0%+0.29
shadow · FB21.8%+0.18
waste · SL3.8%−0.15
7 other locations−0.21
Total+0.08
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.