← BackRyan Helsley
STL · RHP · 2024
62.3 IP · 263 BF · 931 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
117
Stuff+
98th percentile
110
ABStuff+
99th percentile
110
Pitching+
95th percentile
29.7%
K%
89th percentile
7.6%
BB%
57th percentile
2.86
FIP
95th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 62.3 IP · 263 BF · 931 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+117
98th percentile
ABStuff+110
99th percentile
Whiff%32.9%
94th percentile
CSW%43.2%
99th percentile
Results
Pitching+110
95th percentile
RV/100+1.70
93th percentile
FIP2.86
95th percentile
RA/96.35
16th percentile
GB%37.2%
29th percentile
Command
K%29.7%
89th percentile
BB%7.6%
57th percentile
K-BB%22.1%
90th percentile
Velo93.4
92th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 62.3 IP · 263 BF · 931 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%20.5%
88th percentile
O-Whf%62.3%
95th percentile
Chase%33.8%
91th percentile
Z-Con%79.5%
88th percentile
O-Con%37.7%
95th percentile
SwStr%33.7%
95th percentile
PutAwy%25.7%
93th percentile
Approach
Zone%53.6%
86th percentile
Z-Swg%69.5%
63th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%53.0%
91th percentile
CS%20.9%
60th percentile
F-Str%51.0%
53th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SL-0.6/-0.2FF+1.0/+1.2CB+2.3/-2.6ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.12 ft (±0.12)
Side: -0.33 ft (±0.23)
Extension: 6.57 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
90
38.9
27.8
22.2
0.0
87.4
27.0
50.0
SL
67
35.8
16.4
35.8
0.0
80.2
10.4
16.4
CB
7
28.6
42.9
28.6
0.0
87.3
21.9
28.6
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
7th pct
Effective mix
2.4
12th pct
Separation
23.0
82nd pct
Shape scatter
3.0 in
42nd pct
Velo range
18.4 mph
97th pct
SL · FF · CB
2024 season, 931 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.19
87th percentile
Where he throws
+0.08
70th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.11
88th percentile
Heart36.4%
+131.67/100
Shadow36.6%
+152.37/100
Chase17.5%
−280.53/100
Waste9.4%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
heart · FB19.3%+0.37
chase · FB6.7%−0.33
shadow · SL16.9%+0.31
waste · SL6.4%−0.25
shadow · FB18.0%+0.20
7 other locations−0.11
Total+0.19
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.