← BackRyan Helsley
BAL · RHP · 2026
14.7 IP · 68 BF · 268 pitches · 2026 season
MED Descriptive — not a forecast
117
Stuff+
98th percentile
110
ABStuff+
98th percentile
107
Pitching+
76th percentile
30.9%
K%
92th percentile
10.3%
BB%
38th percentile
4.93
FIP
47th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 14.7 IP · 68 BF · 268 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+117
98th percentile
ABStuff+110
98th percentile
Whiff%35.2%
96th percentile
CSW%39.4%
93th percentile
Results
Pitching+107
76th percentile
RV/100-0.40
43th percentile
FIP4.93
47th percentile
RA/92.45
84th percentile
GB%60.5%
95th percentile
Command
K%30.9%
92th percentile
BB%10.3%
38th percentile
K-BB%20.6%
90th percentile
Velo92.7
88th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 14.7 IP · 68 BF · 268 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%25.3%
98th percentile
O-Whf%53.5%
91th percentile
Chase%29.1%
46th percentile
Z-Con%74.7%
95th percentile
O-Con%46.5%
95th percentile
SwStr%31.7%
92th percentile
PutAwy%26.3%
95th percentile
Approach
Zone%44.8%
24th percentile
Z-Swg%65.8%
43th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%45.5%
34th percentile
CS%19.4%
41th percentile
F-Str%47.1%
30th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF+1.0/+1.2SL-0.6/-0.2FS+1.6/-2.8CB+2.3/-2.6ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.11 ft (±0.12)
Side: -0.23 ft (±0.20)
Extension: 6.63 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
18
38.9
44.4
16.7
0.0
82.8
18.0
55.6
SL
13
69.2
15.4
7.7
0.0
70.4
-0.8
46.2
FS
6
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
81.1
-16.8
33.3
CB
1
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
93.2
2.0
0.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
23rd pct
Effective mix
3.1
27th pct
Separation
21.8
77th pct
Shape scatter
3.5 in
88th pct
Velo range
17.3 mph
95th pct
FF · SL · FS · CB
2026 season, 268 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
FF
118
55
-0.26
-0.01
SL
106
44
-1.92
+0.04
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.44
2th percentile
Where he throws
−0.42
2th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.02
44th percentile
Heart28.7%
+174.27/100
Shadow35.1%
+115.87/100
Chase22.4%
−286.13/100
Waste13.8%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB9.0%−0.48
waste · SL9.0%−0.37
heart · FB14.6%+0.31
shadow · SL11.2%+0.15
waste · FB2.2%−0.14
11 other locations+0.09
Total−0.44
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.