← BackJustin Lawrence
COL · RHP · 2024
50.7 IP · 281 BF · 1,081 pitches · 2024 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
105
Stuff+
73th percentile
103
ABStuff+
81th percentile
92
Pitching+
6th percentile
16.0%
K%
18th percentile
11.4%
BB%
21th percentile
6.20
FIP
18th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 50.7 IP · 281 BF · 1,081 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+105
73th percentile
ABStuff+103
81th percentile
Whiff%20.7%
35th percentile
CSW%32.0%
28th percentile
Results
Pitching+92
6th percentile
RV/100-1.65
16th percentile
FIP6.20
18th percentile
RA/95.15
32th percentile
GB%52.6%
85th percentile
Command
K%16.0%
18th percentile
BB%11.4%
21th percentile
K-BB%4.6%
13th percentile
Velo89.8
57th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 50.7 IP · 281 BF · 1,081 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%13.5%
41th percentile
O-Whf%38.5%
40th percentile
Chase%23.9%
18th percentile
Z-Con%86.5%
41th percentile
O-Con%61.5%
40th percentile
SwStr%26.1%
36th percentile
PutAwy%14.6%
25th percentile
Approach
Zone%47.8%
33th percentile
Z-Swg%64.6%
24th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%43.4%
12th percentile
CS%21.0%
61th percentile
F-Str%41.1%
5th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SI+6.9/-4.5SW-0.9/+2.4FF+5.5/+1.7ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 4.36 ft (±0.23)
Side: -2.67 ft (±0.40)
Extension: 6.29 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
136
56.6
14.7
27.2
0.0
87.0
5.5
50.0
SW
57
42.1
28.1
28.1
0.0
78.4
17.3
22.8
FF
1
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100.9
-4.0
100.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
2
0th pct
Effective mix
2.0
5th pct
Separation
31.1
99th pct
Shape scatter
4.3 in
99th pct
Velo range
11.6 mph
45th pct
SI · SW
2024 season, 1,073 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.31
7th percentile
Where he throws
−0.27
8th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.04
32th percentile
Heart27.3%
+131.67/100
Shadow39.2%
+152.37/100
Chase20.1%
−280.53/100
Waste13.4%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
chase · SI10.8%−0.46
waste · SI4.8%−0.38
waste · SL8.5%−0.34
shadow · SI24.0%+0.33
heart · SI18.6%+0.29
7 other locations+0.24
Total−0.31
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.