← BackNick Lodolo
CIN · LHP · 2026
97.3 IP · 489 BF · 1,898 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
108
Stuff+
82th percentile
104
ABStuff+
82th percentile
110
Pitching+
91th percentile
17.0%
K%
25th percentile
9.4%
BB%
47th percentile
6.09
FIP
24th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 97.3 IP · 489 BF · 1,898 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+108
82th percentile
ABStuff+104
82th percentile
Whiff%20.2%
36th percentile
CSW%31.6%
30th percentile
Results
Pitching+110
91th percentile
RV/100-1.04
25th percentile
FIP6.09
24th percentile
RA/94.44
50th percentile
GB%41.8%
51th percentile
Command
K%17.0%
25th percentile
BB%9.4%
47th percentile
K-BB%7.6%
27th percentile
Velo89.6
47th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 97.3 IP · 489 BF · 1,898 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%10.8%
25th percentile
O-Whf%38.2%
45th percentile
Chase%28.6%
42th percentile
Z-Con%89.2%
25th percentile
O-Con%61.8%
45th percentile
SwStr%25.5%
33th percentile
PutAwy%15.4%
35th percentile
Approach
Zone%46.0%
36th percentile
Z-Swg%64.4%
32th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%45.1%
30th percentile
CS%20.3%
52th percentile
F-Str%49.1%
44th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-2.0/-4.1SI+3.1/-1.9CB+0.9/-6.0CH+2.0/-1.5ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.33 ft (±0.09)
Side: 3.66 ft (±0.12)
Extension: 6.19 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
117
43.6
21.4
30.8
0.0
87.6
16.8
48.7
CH
100
54.0
20.0
21.0
0.0
81.9
5.5
31.0
FF
78
28.2
38.5
26.9
0.0
84.1
31.8
46.2
CB
45
33.3
26.7
40.0
0.0
78.4
13.6
28.9
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
23rd pct
Effective mix
4.0
61st pct
Separation
17.0
19th pct
Shape scatter
2.8 in
19th pct
Velo range
11.3 mph
39th pct
FF · SI · CB · CH
2026 season, 1,898 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CB
463
293
-1.67
-0.34
CH
429
259
-0.39
-0.07
FF
520
319
-1.33
-0.01
SI
486
286
-0.72
+0.27
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.09
72th percentile
Where he throws
−0.09
32th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.17
94th percentile
Heart28.0%
+174.27/100
Shadow41.9%
+115.87/100
Chase20.7%
−286.13/100
Waste9.4%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
heart · SI11.1%+0.27
chase · FB4.3%−0.23
waste · CB6.2%−0.23
shadow · CH11.5%+0.23
heart · FB10.1%+0.21
11 other locations−0.16
Total+0.09
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.