← BackKyle Muller
ATH · LHP · 2023
71.3 IP · 372 BF · 1,452 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
99
Stuff+
46th percentile
101
ABStuff+
61th percentile
103
Pitching+
63th percentile
15.1%
K%
14th percentile
10.2%
BB%
33th percentile
6.83
FIP
15th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 71.3 IP · 372 BF · 1,452 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+99
46th percentile
ABStuff+101
61th percentile
Whiff%18.6%
20th percentile
CSW%28.8%
5th percentile
Results
Pitching+103
63th percentile
RV/100-2.07
5th percentile
FIP6.83
15th percentile
RA/93.66
71th percentile
GB%43.4%
54th percentile
Command
K%15.1%
14th percentile
BB%10.2%
33th percentile
K-BB%4.8%
15th percentile
Velo89.6
56th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 71.3 IP · 372 BF · 1,452 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%11.0%
18th percentile
O-Whf%42.4%
56th percentile
Chase%24.1%
20th percentile
Z-Con%89.0%
18th percentile
O-Con%57.6%
56th percentile
SwStr%22.4%
5th percentile
PutAwy%11.7%
5th percentile
Approach
Zone%51.4%
76th percentile
Z-Swg%71.6%
83th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%48.5%
65th percentile
CS%17.2%
14th percentile
F-Str%42.2%
12th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
FF-1.3/+4.1SL+0.7/-2.4CB+2.4/-4.3CH+0.1/+0.8ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.08 ft (±0.13)
Side: 1.74 ft (±0.42)
Extension: 6.44 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
FF
150
44.0
26.0
25.3
0.0
86.8
19.4
62.0
SL
85
42.4
30.6
21.2
0.0
83.1
11.0
29.4
CB
26
50.0
19.2
26.9
0.0
82.5
4.7
50.0
CH
13
30.8
53.8
7.7
0.0
81.2
17.9
38.5
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
4
35th pct
Effective mix
3.3
47th pct
Separation
17.3
24th pct
Shape scatter
3.6 in
90th pct
Velo range
12.3 mph
55th pct
FF · SL · CB · CH
2023 season, 1,452 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.10
32th percentile
Where he throws
−0.10
30th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.00
53th percentile
Heart30.9%
+132.31/100
Shadow38.4%
+150.11/100
Chase19.7%
−277.79/100
Waste11.0%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
chase · FB7.8%−0.39
heart · FB20.3%+0.36
shadow · SL10.3%+0.20
waste · CH3.9%−0.18
shadow · FB21.9%+0.18
11 other locations−0.27
Total−0.10
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.