← BackMatt Brash
SEA · RHP · 2023
68.0 IP · 308 BF · 1,291 pitches · 2023 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
116
Stuff+
98th percentile
110
ABStuff+
98th percentile
103
Pitching+
64th percentile
34.4%
K%
95th percentile
9.4%
BB%
42th percentile
2.62
FIP
95th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 68.0 IP · 308 BF · 1,291 pitches · 2023 season
Stuff
Stuff+116
98th percentile
ABStuff+110
98th percentile
Whiff%35.3%
95th percentile
CSW%39.2%
90th percentile
Results
Pitching+103
64th percentile
RV/100+0.76
79th percentile
FIP2.62
95th percentile
RA/94.76
50th percentile
GB%45.5%
61th percentile
Command
K%34.4%
95th percentile
BB%9.4%
42th percentile
K-BB%25.0%
93th percentile
Velo92.1
86th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2023 graded MLB pitchers · 68.0 IP · 308 BF · 1,291 pitches · 2023 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%20.2%
83th percentile
O-Whf%61.8%
96th percentile
Chase%29.4%
60th percentile
Z-Con%79.8%
83th percentile
O-Con%38.2%
95th percentile
SwStr%33.2%
94th percentile
PutAwy%25.0%
92th percentile
Approach
Zone%45.4%
20th percentile
Z-Swg%62.4%
18th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%44.3%
23th percentile
CS%20.8%
55th percentile
F-Str%56.4%
87th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
SL-2.6/+10.4FF-2.1/-2.8CBCTSI-0.8/-1.7ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 5.11 ft (±0.12)
Side: -2.65 ft (±0.19)
Extension: 6.50 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SL
80
42.5
38.8
13.8
0.0
82.1
12.8
26.2
FF
58
46.6
29.3
20.7
0.0
84.3
25.8
53.4
CB
16
50.0
12.5
37.5
0.0
83.5
-1.8
25.0
SI
6
66.7
0.0
16.7
0.0
77.3
0.1
0.0
CT
5
40.0
0.0
60.0
0.0
78.0
-0.1
0.0
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
5
70th pct
Effective mix
3.1
44th pct
Separation
20.9
59th pct
Shape scatter
3.6 in
90th pct
Velo range
12.7 mph
59th pct
SL · FF · CB · CT · SI
2023 season, 1,291 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.11
30th percentile
Where he throws
−0.20
14th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.09
79th percentile
Heart28.7%
+132.31/100
Shadow38.7%
+150.11/100
Chase20.6%
−277.79/100
Waste12.0%
−492.99/100
What makes up the total
shadow · SL18.1%+0.35
waste · SL7.0%−0.29
chase · FB5.0%−0.26
heart · FB12.2%+0.22
waste · FB2.4%−0.15
16 other locations+0.01
Total−0.11
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2023 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.