← BackTommy Nance
TOR · RHP · 2024
19.3 IP · 93 BF · 320 pitches · 2024 season
MED Descriptive — not a forecast
111
Stuff+
93th percentile
109
ABStuff+
97th percentile
103
Pitching+
62th percentile
20.4%
K%
44th percentile
7.5%
BB%
58th percentile
4.24
FIP
63th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 19.3 IP · 93 BF · 320 pitches · 2024 season
Stuff
Stuff+111
93th percentile
ABStuff+109
97th percentile
Whiff%25.0%
66th percentile
CSW%42.7%
98th percentile
Results
Pitching+103
62th percentile
RV/100+0.09
57th percentile
FIP4.24
63th percentile
RA/95.12
32th percentile
GB%53.1%
86th percentile
Command
K%20.4%
44th percentile
BB%7.5%
58th percentile
K-BB%12.9%
47th percentile
Velo88.9
44th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2024 graded MLB pitchers · 19.3 IP · 93 BF · 320 pitches · 2024 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%9.6%
12th percentile
O-Whf%56.5%
91th percentile
Chase%27.4%
44th percentile
Z-Con%90.4%
12th percentile
O-Con%43.5%
95th percentile
SwStr%33.9%
95th percentile
PutAwy%23.1%
88th percentile
Approach
Zone%47.8%
33th percentile
Z-Swg%61.0%
5th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%43.5%
13th percentile
CS%29.0%
99th percentile
F-Str%46.2%
22th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
CB-2.9/+3.6SI-1.1/-1.7SL+1.0/-3.8ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.20 ft (±0.18)
Side: -1.04 ft (±0.18)
Extension: 6.31 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
SI
28
42.9
21.4
32.1
0.0
84.9
9.5
39.3
SL
21
52.4
23.8
14.3
0.0
82.1
6.1
38.1
CB
15
73.3
6.7
20.0
0.0
82.2
-9.1
26.7
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
3
7th pct
Effective mix
3.0
32nd pct
Separation
25.7
94th pct
Shape scatter
2.7 in
13th pct
Velo range
9.9 mph
24th pct
CB · SI · SL
2024 season, 320 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
+0.14
79th percentile
Where he throws
+0.06
65th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.08
81th percentile
Heart32.9%
+131.67/100
Shadow38.8%
+152.37/100
Chase20.2%
−280.53/100
Waste8.1%
−494.43/100
What makes up the total
heart · SI16.1%+0.25
shadow · CB16.5%+0.24
chase · SI5.0%−0.21
waste · SI2.5%−0.19
shadow · SL9.6%+0.18
9 other locations−0.13
Total+0.14
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2024 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.