← BackGraham Ashcraft
CIN · RHP · 2025
59.7 IP · 284 BF · 1,038 pitches · 2025 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
112
Stuff+
93th percentile
107
ABStuff+
96th percentile
107
Pitching+
81th percentile
22.5%
K%
57th percentile
8.8%
BB%
48th percentile
3.25
FIP
90th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 59.7 IP · 284 BF · 1,038 pitches · 2025 season
Stuff
Stuff+112
93th percentile
ABStuff+107
96th percentile
Whiff%27.0%
77th percentile
CSW%37.7%
89th percentile
Results
Pitching+107
81th percentile
RV/100-0.05
51th percentile
FIP3.25
90th percentile
RA/95.73
24th percentile
GB%58.5%
93th percentile
Command
K%22.5%
57th percentile
BB%8.8%
48th percentile
K-BB%13.7%
57th percentile
Velo93.7
93th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2025 graded MLB pitchers · 59.7 IP · 284 BF · 1,038 pitches · 2025 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%13.5%
40th percentile
O-Whf%46.9%
68th percentile
Chase%38.1%
98th percentile
Z-Con%86.5%
40th percentile
O-Con%53.1%
68th percentile
SwStr%29.4%
80th percentile
PutAwy%20.8%
79th percentile
Approach
Zone%47.1%
21th percentile
Z-Swg%63.4%
23th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%50.0%
75th percentile
CS%20.4%
56th percentile
F-Str%47.7%
33th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
CT+4.0/-2.4SL-2.3/+3.9ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.49 ft (±0.12)
Side: -0.10 ft (±0.17)
Extension: 5.43 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
CT
124
58.9
13.7
23.4
0.0
81.8
10.6
34.7
SL
71
57.7
11.3
23.9
0.0
79.5
7.4
28.2
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
2
0th pct
Effective mix
2.0
4th pct
Separation
15.8
11th pct
Shape scatter
3.3 in
73rd pct
Velo range
7.2 mph
3rd pct
CT · SL
2025 season, 1,038 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.01
50th percentile
Where he throws
−0.08
33th percentile
Which pitch there
+0.07
79th percentile
Heart30.1%
+148.26/100
Shadow38.9%
+125.76/100
Chase23.8%
−278.14/100
Waste7.2%
−488.14/100
What makes up the total
chase · CT11.1%−0.40
shadow · CT22.9%+0.27
heart · CT17.4%+0.26
shadow · SL16.0%+0.24
waste · SL4.5%−0.18
3 other locations−0.20
Total−0.01
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2025 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.