← BackGraham Ashcraft
CIN · RHP · 2026
31.7 IP · 152 BF · 612 pitches · 2026 season
HIGH Descriptive — not a forecast
114
Stuff+
96th percentile
108
ABStuff+
97th percentile
108
Pitching+
85th percentile
26.3%
K%
79th percentile
14.5%
BB%
12th percentile
4.08
FIP
74th percentile
Grades describe this season's stuff and run prevention. They are not forecasts: on clean season pairs the model has not beaten naive persistence (RESULTS-MLB §13), so nothing here projects next season.
Percentile rankings
vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 31.7 IP · 152 BF · 612 pitches · 2026 season
Stuff
Stuff+114
96th percentile
ABStuff+108
97th percentile
Whiff%27.7%
82th percentile
CSW%34.4%
64th percentile
Results
Pitching+108
85th percentile
RV/100+0.18
63th percentile
FIP4.08
74th percentile
RA/96.82
13th percentile
GB%53.5%
90th percentile
Command
K%26.3%
79th percentile
BB%14.5%
12th percentile
K-BB%11.8%
51th percentile
Velo94.4
95th percentile
How to read these
Each row is his rank, 1 to 99, among all graded MLB pitchers this season; the tick is the median. Green is good for him, red bad, whatever the stat's direction (a low FIP ranks high). Grey circles are descriptive rates with no good direction, and n= in place of a rank means too few events to rank. Grades are descriptive, not forecasts.
Percentile rankings
Raw plate discipline · vs 2026 graded MLB pitchers · 31.7 IP · 152 BF · 612 pitches · 2026 season
Swing & miss
Z-Whf%13.4%
50th percentile
O-Whf%47.5%
79th percentile
Chase%34.5%
86th percentile
Z-Con%86.6%
50th percentile
O-Con%52.5%
79th percentile
SwStr%28.9%
77th percentile
PutAwy%21.4%
83th percentile
Approach
Zone%44.1%
20th percentile
Z-Swg%60.7%
12th percentile, descriptive, no good or bad direction
Swing%46.1%
39th percentile
CS%19.2%
38th percentile
F-Str%48.7%
41th percentile
How to read these
Raw rates with this season's descriptive ranks. Sample-adjusted (shrunk) rankings are not shown yet: the reliability constants behind them were measured on college data and are being re-measured on MLB. Until then a small sample here is a small sample — hover the leaderboard column for its event count.
ArsenalKey columns; every column is on the Arsenal tab
Movement Profile
CT+4.0/-2.4SL-2.3/+3.9ring = slot expectation ±1σ/2σ · HB mirrored for LHP · descriptive
Release Traits
Height: 6.42 ft (±0.11)
Side: 0.00 ft (±0.15)
Extension: 5.54 ft
Season means; the ± is the SD across his pitches. Per-pitch release plots land in a later wave.
Batted Ball Against
Pitch
N_BIP
GB%
FB%
LD%
PU%
Avg EV
Avg LA
HrdHit%
CT
52
55.8
17.3
19.2
0.0
83.1
23.5
40.4
SL
34
50.0
26.5
20.6
0.0
84.0
10.2
29.4
Every pitch type he threw, ordered by balls in play. Rows under 5 BIP are dimmed rather than dropped — a slider put in play twice is a fact about the slider.
Arsenal
Pitches
2
0th pct
Effective mix
2.0
3rd pct
Separation
16.2
12th pct
Shape scatter
3.5 in
85th pct
Velo range
7.2 mph
3rd pct
CT · SL
2026 season, 612 pitches; percentiles vs MLB pitchers with 100+ that season. A description of the arsenal, not a grade: none of these predicted next season beyond Pitching+ and his own prior year. For shape scatter a higher percentile is MORE scatter.
Run value by pitch2026 · measured
Pitch
Pitches
PA reach
RV/100
Lg avg
CT
333
131
-0.72
-0.07
SL
279
122
+1.27
+0.04
RV/100 is pitcher-positive (runs saved per 100 pitches). These are results: on a sample this size most of the gap between pitchers is the bounce of the ball, so the column never colours and never ranks a grade. The expected-value half of this card (xRV/100, locations, xwOBA) needs the run-value model and does not ship yet.
Location value
runs per 100 pitches vs league
Total
−0.10
33th percentile
Where he throws
−0.08
33th percentile
Which pitch there
−0.01
47th percentile
Heart29.9%
+174.27/100
Shadow39.2%
+115.87/100
Chase22.6%
−286.13/100
Waste8.3%
−497.23/100
What makes up the total
chase · CT11.1%−0.41
heart · CT17.6%+0.29
shadow · SL17.5%+0.24
waste · CT3.9%−0.24
shadow · CT21.7%+0.21
3 other locations−0.18
Total−0.10
Pitcher-positive, centred on the 2026 league mean (+0.01 RV/100). Ranks are descriptive: the year-to-year reliability of this mix on MLB has not been measured yet, so no cell is verdict-coloured. His actual run value minus this mix — execution — is deliberately not shown.